Cedar Fair Corporate Development Discussion Thread (FUN)

[coasterbill]

Okay, so I have a few takeaways from this transcript and then I'll get into the coaster thing...

 

- Net revenue through the end of April is at a record high. They only reason they discussed April in a Q1 call is because Q1 results are always impacted by the timing of the Easter Holiday which was late this year and in turned made Q1's numbers less than impressive.

 

- Knott's was down in Q1, they're blaming rain and I think that's fair to an extent. Luckily the Boysenberry Festival has been a big hit for them so they saw record attendance and per cap spending in April.

 

- Kings Dominion had its best April in years. Carowinds had its strongest single weak for spring break in the park's history.

 

- Mystic Timbers had the best attended attraction opening in the park's history.

 

- Season pass revenue is already up 10%, some of the largest growth in season passes on a percentage basis are the three parks where they're adding Winterfest so they seem to be experiencing the same impacts that Six Flags is experiencing with Holiday in the Park. The more months in which you can provide benefits, the more Season Passes you sell. This bodes really well for the expansion of this event even further and the continuation of this industry trend as a whole which is a BIG win for us.

 

Honestly, there's really not much news on the financial side from Q1 because almost all of their revenue is from one park. Aside from Knott's, their only Q1 revenue is from advance ticket sales and season pass sales, a tiny amount of income from Castaway Bay and Gilroy Gardens and a ridiculously small sample of operating days from parks that open in late March like Carowinds. They cherry picked some intriguing numbers from April but it doesn't seem like there's a major upward or downward trend from last season so there's not much news on that front. Q1 operations represent less than 5% of their expected full year net revenues so it's not worth dwelling on them.

 

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Okay, so... let's talk about the coaster thing. The quote was...

 

As we look to build on Cedar Fair's history we'll adding to our collection of world class coasters including a completely new type of coaster, a dramatic transformation of two of our historical wooden coasters and a renewed relationship with a manufacturer who we have worked with recent history that will add another coaster and deepen our pool of ride manufacturers.

 

As soon as I read that I knew everyone would freak out hoping that they were talking about an Intamin and a T Rex coaster because it's what they want. At first I interpreted it as B&M. They've worked with them in recent history, we know they're happy with them and we also know that CGA's future plans call for a B&M hyper.

 

When I started thinking about it this morning though I realized that B&M didn't really make sense. It didn't flow with their statement about this ride "deepening the pool of ride manufacturers". Aside from that, asking for the chain to build 2 RMC's, a hyper coaster and an additional coaster in the same year along with a massive hotel expansion (though who knows what the payment structure is for that, it could be more of a 2017 project) is insane.

 

After a little digging, I feel like the enthusiast wet dreams might actually be confirmed and the coaster will actually be an Intamin for CGA.

 

Construction markers have showed up at CGA and were referenced in the conference call. The markers are in the former location of the hang and bang boomerang.

 

- Photo by rolercstrluvr

 

In the master plan that they presented to the city, we see a coaster in that location and the coaster is an image of Wicked Twister that was probably picked from Google Maps (look at the station roof)

- Image posted by AfrosaurusWrecks in the CGA thread

 

They also used an image of an Impulse coaster in the official plan they submitted...

 

Obviously Wicked Twister itself isn't going anywhere so I feel like they're talking about a NEW Intamin Impulse coaster here. This is also a coaster with a semi reasonable price tag and I think that's an important factor to consider here. Since they're adding 2 RMC's and a total of 4 coasters I don't see either of these 2 mystery coasters being massively expensive rides. I'm not saying an Impulse coaster is cheap, but it is compared to something like a large B&M.

 

My only hesitation here is that even though the park has basically told us that there's an Impulse coaster in the plans and there are construction markers exactly where the plan shows an Impulse coaster I still can't believe they're seriously doing this. Impulse coasters are some of the loudest coasters you could possibly buy and given the headaches they had to go through with the neighbors about Gold Striker being too loud it seems insane to me that they would go this route. It's a new impulse coaster, maybe it's quieter... but otherwise it seems odd.

 

As for the 4th coaster, we don't know much of anything here. It's reasonable to assume that it's going to Knott's, but aside from that it could really be anything. I know everyone's going to immediately jump on the RMC T Rex / Raptor track bandwagon and it's as good a guess as any. The problem is that since it's a brand new ride type there's a good chance that it's something we've seen at IAPPA but there's also a good chance that it's something brand new that we've never seen before. The T Rex thing is as good a guess as any, but this could really be basically anything and I don't even see the point in guessing just because we have so little to go on. The only thing I really got out of this was that I'm less confident in the Knott's hyper / giga rumor than I was before. I feel like if they were going that route then they'd go with B&M. Then again, the thought of a 2018 B&M giga at Knott's was sort of a pipe dream anyway just because of how much money they're already dumping into 2018 CAPEX.

 

Right now I'm pretty confident about 3 out of the 4 coasters but I'm really excited to see what the other one is. I feel like all eyes should be on Knott's but aside from that the possibilities are endless.

[boldikus]

As always, nice breakdown Bill.

[coasterbill]

You know you're doing a good job breaking it down when your breakdown gets the endorsement of Mr. Breakdown himself.

[boldikus]

[RAWKIN_coaster38]

Thanks Coasterbill, that was enlightening.

 

I'm surprised Mystic Timbers had the most well-attended ride opening for KI, since I heard so many people say Banshee and Diamondback had 6+ hour waits for their openings, and MT capped out at 4. It does make me happy, if that is the case, because I really like MT and was curious how the GP would perceive it if all they were excited about was finding out what's in the shed.

 

It's kind of weird to think of CGA getting an impulse since SFDK has one, but it has been said before that the two parks draw from very different markets of people. It's possible a lot of park-goers might not even notice or care that there is a very similar ride across the bay. It would fit nicely into the area, and fill the gap in CGA's lineup for launch coasters (since Greased Lightning has been gone a very long time). I do wonder about the noise as well. Maybe they will enclose the launch section of the ride to keep the noise down, and add some effects inside to make things more interesting.

[chickenbowl]

There's this:

 

I think the new info from the conference call brings up a lot of possibilities. Obviously CP and KD will get RMCs. It seems CGA and Knott's are the contenders for the other two coasters. I think I'd be happy with anything either would get! But "Ledge" sounds like a name for a KBF Coaster (Mack? Intamin? lol)

[coasterbill]

Honestly when I saw the name I thought of a speed slide for a water park. I'm also pretty confident in that Impulse coaster for CGA since they drew up an ultra specific plan, the area where the impulse coaster is going has tons of construction markers and it jives with what they said in the call. If this is the case would mean that Knott's would be getting a brand new coaster type. I don't think this name makes sense for an RMC or an Impulse coaster, but since we have no idea what Knott's is getting I guess it could be for that.

 

Interesting for sure...

[chickenbowl]

Honestly when I saw the name I thought of a speed slide for a water park. I'm also pretty confident in that Impulse coaster for CGA since they drew up an ultra specific plan, the area where the impulse coaster is going has tons of construction markers and it jives with what they said in the call. If this is the case would mean that Knott's would be getting a brand new coaster type. I don't think this name makes sense for an RMC or an Impulse coaster, but since we have no idea what Knott's is getting I guess it could be for that.

 

Interesting for sure...

 

I mean, their "ultra specific" plan also has a clone of X-Flight (which is never mentioned in writing). That whole document seems more like a proposal of possibilities for expansion instead of literal plans. It very well could be an impulse, Intamin is apparently building a new one in China, but I wouldn't be sure on that being one of the four coasters quite yet. The only thing we know for sure about CGA is it's location in the park (which happens to have an impulse in one rendering, to be fair). But if Cedar Fair starts working with Intamin again, that's a great thing!

 

In my personal opinion, I think it would an impulse would be a strange choice for CGA considering their only competing theme park has had one for 15+ years (but that didn't stop them from building a GCI, so *shrug*?)

[TheJewelOfJool]

http://ir.cedarfair.com/investor-home/default.aspx

 

Cedar Fair Quarterly Earnings Statement, Confirms 4 new coasters for 2018

 

Big details:

-California's Great America already has markers showing up for their 2018 addition. Plans should be finalized by beginning of next year.

-First of its kind coaster coming to the chain.

-RMC Mean Streak hinted at, along with RMC Hurler

-Previous Manufacturer is coming back for a project. Plenty of options to choose from (hopefully Intamin).

-Demographic studies completed at 6 of their parks so far and has helped increase satisfaction and attendance at those parks as well.

-No confirmation on what parks will be getting hotels just yet, but at the moment they want to roll out the sports complexes quickly.

 

It's not posted in the media release, but was discussed in the Conference Call which is connected with that link for the Q1 earnings report.

"completely new type of coaster, a dramatic transformation of two of our historical wooden coasters and a renewed relationship with a manufacturer who we have worked with in recent history that will add another coaster and deepen our pool of ride manufacturers." -From Matt Ouimet

[coasterbill]

I mean, their "ultra specific" plan also has a clone of X-Flight (which is never mentioned in writing). That whole document seems more like a proposal of possibilities for expansion instead of literal plans.

 

Fair point on that particular coaster, but they go into a good amount of detail on the hypercoaster and the Impulse coaster.

 

 

I know someone will get hung up on the pictures they used but clearly they're just looking for filler images from rides that already exist in the chain so they already have them lying around in a folder somewhere. The text however is very specific. The wing coaster isn't mentioned and may very well be a placeholder but the hyper layout and impulse location drawn on the map really don't seem to be placeholders since they're backed up by this page of the presentation and the descriptions themselves are highly specific. At least that's my feeling on it...

[AstrumSpark]

So what I'm getting is the two major coasters are the RMCs and the others are mini-coasters.

 

Kind of makes the 4 coasters in 2018 seem meh overall.

[coasterbill]

Kind of makes the 4 coasters in 2018 seem less than meh overall.

 

They're getting TWO RMCs which are both bound to be amazing rides simply because... I mean... they're RMCs, a 70 MPH double launching Intamin (if we go by the description and map) and a first of it's kind coaster that could literally be almost anything. What more could you possibly want?

[chickenbowl]

So what I'm getting is the two major coasters are the RMCs and the others are mini-coasters.

 

Kind of makes the 4 coasters in 2018 seem meh overall.

 

No, what? mini-coasters?

[boldikus]

So what I'm getting is the two major coasters are the RMCs and the others are mini-coasters.

 

Kind of makes the 4 coasters in 2018 seem meh overall.

[Superbatboy]

The Ledge sounds like something with a vertical drop, maybe those Infinity coaster rumors aren't too far fetched?

[WOFanatic]

Kind of makes the 4 coasters in 2018 seem less than meh overall.

 

They're getting TWO RMCs which are both bound to be amazing rides simply because... I mean... they're RMCs, a 70 MPH double launching Intamin (if we go by the description and map) and a first of it's kind coaster that could literally be almost anything. What more could you possibly want?

They couldn't have thrown in ONE giga coaster? This is bullsh*t. I want my season pass refunded.

 

As for the fourth coaster, I'm definitely putting my money on an #RMCraptor for Knott's. It's the perfect location for a coaster that size, it's one-of-a-kind, and it fits well within the theme of a boardwalk. For the poster that brought up the idea of a Bermuda Blitz from Vekoma (the new, awesome design we saw last summer), they've already built it for a park in Europe, I believe.

 

So 3 RMC's and an Intamin Impulse (assumingly). That's a very solid year. Hopefully Cedar Fair keeps up the trend of adding Impulse coasters, as I know of a park in dire need of one (hint: it's in Missouri).

[AstrumSpark]

Kind of makes the 4 coasters in 2018 seem less than meh overall.

 

They're getting TWO RMCs which are both bound to be amazing rides simply because... I mean... they're RMCs, a 70 MPH double launching Intamin (if we go by the description and map) and a first of it's kind coaster that could literally be almost anything. What more could you possibly want?

 

I take it that you guys didn't get my sarcasm.

[coasterbill]

Really, that's what you're going with?

[cparkes92]

When it comes to coasters, here is my projected major coaster rotation for the next few years.

2018: Canada's Wonderland, Cedar Point (RMC Mean Streak), Kings Dominion (RMC Hurler), Knott's Berry Farm

2019: California's Great America, Carowinds, Worlds of Fun

2020: Cedar Point

2021: Canada's Wonderland, Kings Dominion

2022: California's Great America, Kings Island

2023: Carowinds, Worlds of Fun (both parks turn 50 in 2023)

 

I could see Dorney, Michigan's Adventure, and Valleyfair get smaller coasters (maybe a smaller RMC) in the 2020-2021 timeframe

[WOFanatic]

2023: Carowinds, Worlds of Fun (both parks turn 50 in 2023)

Bill...will you do the honors?

[boldikus]

2023: Carowinds, Worlds of Fun (both parks turn 50 in 2023)

Bill...will you do the honors?

[AstrumSpark]

When it comes to coasters, here is my projected major coaster rotation for the next few years.

2018: Canada's Wonderland, Cedar Point (RMC Mean Streak), Kings Dominion (RMC Hurler), Knott's Berry Farm

2019: California's Great America, Carowinds, Worlds of Fun

2020: Cedar Point

2021: Canada's Wonderland, Kings Dominion

2022: California's Great America, Kings Island

2023: Carowinds, Worlds of Fun (both parks turn 50 in 2023)

 

I could see Dorney, Michigan's Adventure, and Valleyfair get smaller coasters (maybe a smaller RMC) in the 2020-2021 timeframe

 

 

Oh the delusion of some enthusiasts (sorry).

 

First of all, Canada's Wonderland is not getting a coaster in 2018 period. If they were construction would have already started. Second, Cedar Fair doesn't add multiple coasters every year. Third of all, no park gets a coaster every couple of years unless you're Cedar Point. Fourth, Cedar Fair doesn't add coasters for the reason of anniversaries.

 

You're not thinking from a practical standpoint. Cedar Fair can't just blow money like Six Flags did and go bankrupt.

[AstrumSpark]

2023: Carowinds, Worlds of Fun (both parks turn 50 in 2023)

Bill...will you do the honors?

 

[WestCoasterKing]

I wish CF would buy Wild Waves already. The park has so much potential.

[Rollercoaster Rider]

I wish CF would buy Wild Waves already. The park has so much potential.

 

The park has a 75t Height Limit, Is on 70 acres, and according to Six Flags 2006 Reports- Has less than 5 million people within 100 miles. Where's the Potential?