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Six Flags Conference Call Details, 6 Parks Possibly For Sale


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Any park operator would be brave to take on Magic-less Mountain. It's in dire need of a massive overhaul. It needs to a huge scale back, less roller coasters (just loose the crap ones), more flat rides, staff that are out of diapers and a big injection of anti-apathy medicine.

 

MM is the park that makes you want to hate Six Flags, Great Adventure is their saving grace, concentrate on it. Perhaps using some of the wads of cash from selling the other parks.

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If Great Adventure is considered the saving grave, the company is in more trouble than even I thought. It's got a lot of the same problems SFMM has, and far too many closed rides.

 

As for SFMM, I keep hearing how much work the park would need, and although I agree, I disagree that the park is that far gone. It just needs a company that has the disposable cash to run all the attractions and clean the park up. It may not be up to enthusiasts standards even then, but we don't count that much.

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^^^I personally found Great Adventure to be worse. It was just too damn crowded, operations were terrible, and they don't know how to run two of their biggest rides. El Toro was a nightmare to wait for, and Kingda Krap is just closed all the time. At least at Magic Mountain you can usually ride everything. At Great Adventure, it too me 5 hours to ride Nitro and El Toro.

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If Great Adventure is considered the saving grave, the company is in more trouble than even I thought. It's got a lot of the same problems SFMM has, and far too many closed rides.

 

As for SFMM, I keep hearing how much work the park would need, and although I agree, I disagree that the park is that far gone. It just needs a company that has the disposable cash to run all the attractions and clean the park up. It may not be up to enthusiasts standards even then, but we don't count that much.

 

I agree! If 6FGAdv is the saving grace. Then call the whole company F***ed! I at least can enjoy being at MM once or twice a month with my kids. I was at GAdv twice last year. If it wern't for the awesome company that escorted me around the park for the day. I would have found the park miserable, disjointed, and overcrowded. Honestly, If it wern't for El Toro & Nitro I wouldn't bother going back. Luckily, there are plenty of other parks within a few hours that are fun to go to. That way, I can go ride ET and Nitro, then leave in hopefully less than 4 hours and go visit a couple of nice parks.

 

People are so quick to bag on Magic Mountain when the whole Company is in the S***er! The 6F park that I have been to that was exceptional was 6FNE. It was beautiful. Had great employees and was an overall enjoyable place to go to. Let's face facts here people. All of the parks are in need of some serious TLC. Some More than others. Magic Mountain has it's issues. Believe me, it has issues. It is by far not the only problem in the Company. The whole company overspent when the rain was pouring down, not saving anything for when a drought came along. When the drought did hit, they had no reserves to keep their lake from getting drained. Now a new owner is desperately trying to fill that resivoir back up again. Only problem is, their still in the middle of a drought. They think that by decreasing the size of the lake, it might fill back up. Unfortunately they keep failing to notice the huge crack in the dam. Unless they patch that crack. No matter how much smaller they make the lake, it will just drain out. Six flags needs to fix the holes! Not the lake.

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Im going to stick up for SFMM here.

 

There are alot of people syaing this place is basically in the sh*tter, and needs some huge enourmous overhaul.

 

Step back and really look at the place, its not that bad. The land it's on is pretty, and the majority of the coasters have nice stations and surroundings, excpet scream, ofcourse. The only area that I really don't like is the scream/collossus area, becasue its so dull.

 

Nothing about the park needs to be "changed", i think. It think some paint and repaving of the pathways could go a long way to making the park look and feel fresher. New signage wouldn't hurt either.

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If Great Adventure is considered the saving grave, the company is in more trouble than even I thought. It's got a lot of the same problems SFMM has, and far too many closed rides.

 

As for SFMM, I keep hearing how much work the park would need, and although I agree, I disagree that the park is that far gone. It just needs a company that has the disposable cash to run all the attractions and clean the park up. It may not be up to enthusiasts standards even then, but we don't count that much.

 

Oh dear

 

To be honest Viper was still alive and running when I was there. Sorry to hear it's gone down hill too.

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^^^Guy, I thought you were in Lighting, not water management?

 

352 million should go a long way towards filling that lake and sealing that crack.

 

352 million vs. 2.4 billion isn't even 20%, actualy closer to 15%. The only way that would be a drop in the bucket is if it was applied directly to dept. I guarantee that won't happen. There's all kinds of other expenses that would be figured into the break up of that money. It would actualy shock me if they were able to use more than 75% for debt reduction. The interest alone after one more year on the remaining 2.05 billion at even a modest rate of say 5% would be a hair over 100 million.

 

Heres some rough math for ya.

 

2.4 Billion - (75% of 352 million= 264 million) = 2.136 Billion + (Interst from 06' @ 5% totaling 105.16 million) = 2.241 Billion.

 

So in acuality, their only making a 159 million payment toward the balance in 06'.

 

Interest in 07' would then be another 100.11 million. Which brings you up to 2.35 Billion by the end of 07.

 

Congrats 6F you just cut off 50 Million of your whopping debt while losing one of your highest grossing parks in 07.

 

Now to compound this, lets just say MM has 2.5 Million guests in 07'. If you only charge 1/2 admission cost @ $30 per person. You get 75 Million not including parking fees, merchandise sales &, food sales. That's 75 Million that 6F doesn't get because it no longer owns the park.

 

Based on that figure, 2.4B - 50M = 2.35B + (75M of lost revenue in 07')= 2.425B

 

Wow! look at that, they actualy increase their debt by 25Million at the end of 07'.

 

I don't know about you RM, but the last time I checked, adding to your already balloning debt, compounded by the loss of income = bad business.

 

Do you get that whole resevoir analogy now?

 

I could be wrong though.

 

Oh, I'm in production. Not lighting. I deal with money, budgets, and show running.

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^ Financially, I agree with your logic on this one, Guy. But, the one thing I can't argue with in Shapiro's grand plan is his effort. Sure, as evidenced by numerous SFMM and SFGADV TRs, the company has a LONG way to go, but in all honesty, there have been some attempts at improvements regarding their other properties. It's a long road to travel in order to turn it all around, and it certainly won't happen overnight, but short term is always about making investors happy.

 

If they can show even marginal success towards an overall goal, then current investors, shareholders, etc. etc. might not be so quick to jump ship. Offloading some of the lesser parks is a small step towards that. Personally, I'd be looking at the way SFOT, SFNE, SFOG, SFFT, and SFA perform in the next year. To me, these are the apples of Shapiro's eyes, and if he can prove that the "family friendly atmosphere" is gradually succeeding in those parks, then he'll gain leverage to make larger improvements down the road.

 

Oh, and I'm still not sold on the fact that Wes's dream of a pavement kingdom is completely dead either.

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Now to compound this, lets just say MM has 2.5 Million guests in 07'. If you only charge 1/2 admission cost @ $30 per person. You get 75 Million not including parking fees, merchandise sales &, food sales. That's 75 Million that 6F doesn't get because it no longer owns the park.

 

You're using MM as an example, but this is written like you meant it was sold.

 

Interesting figures. It's still going to be a major uphill battle.

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Do not by any means use my hypothetical figures as any sort of fact whatsoever. I don't have any hard figures to realy make but an educated guess as to their financial crises. They are merely there to make a point that it seems to me that even as bad a shape MM is in. It might not behoove them to sell it. Being that their juice to squeeze raitio would net them a loss in a matter of years.

 

Again, I also think 6 Flags problems don't stem from one park in particular. I think it stemmed from mis-management company wide many years back when they were making money hand over fist and thought the well would never dry up.

 

Well, surprise!

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Congrats 6F you just cut off 50 Million of your whopping debt while losing one of your highest grossing parks in 07.

 

Now to compound this, lets just say MM has 2.5 Million guests in 07'. If you only charge 1/2 admission cost @ $30 per person. You get 75 Million not including parking fees, merchandise sales &, food sales. That's 75 Million that 6F doesn't get because it no longer owns the park.

 

Based on that figure, 2.4B - 50M = 2.35B + (75M of lost revenue in 07')= 2.425B

 

This is the series that I misinterpereted as you thinking that they had included 6FMM in the sale, particularly: "While losing your highest grossing paks in 07."

 

I understand your analogy, and I accept that 6F has an unimaginably unwieldly debt load.

 

The number I had heard was 1.8 billion, but dollars to donuts, 2.1 or 1.8 billion it doesn't matter which one it is. Either way it is too large for the company to manage, and it seems that this is what is bringing the company down.

 

Are we still cool, Guy?

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