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Six Flags May Not Survive 2009...


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If this whole thing gets much worse it could get very interesting.

 

Wasn't it during the Great Depression that we lots tons of parks and coasters and all the technology basically reverted back like 20 years once parks started going again?

 

Not saying that this is going to happen, but I think people should be prepared for many more parks to close in the next couple of years.

 

As we have said in MANY topics though...the writing has been on the wall for Six Flags long before the 'economy' was a daily subject of conversation!

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Perhaps SFI can come out of this in such a way as to be able to pay down their debt while keeping the parks in operation & then begin rebuilding the chain from the ground up starting in 2010? The debt is what's holding them back from being able to make the necessary cap ex improvements in the parks(has been for years) that are needed to bring in the customers & increase revenues.

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Do you think that if they run out of business that Cedar Fair might buy the biggest parks like how when Paramount sold their parks they bought those parks. Is it a possibility that Cedar Fair might buy out Great Adventure and Magic Mountain and possibly even more parks or are they in financial trouble as well? Imagine if Cedar Fair had the 3 parks with the most roller coasters in the world as well as Great Adventure and possibly even more!

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What about Budweiser buying them out and making new Busch Gardens because its pretty hard to imagine Budweiser going out of business... ever because they are the biggest beer company in the country. I doubt that they're interested at all in expanding but I was just curious.

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Personally while I have hope that this is going to work out, I don't think the future for the chain is very bright.

 

As far as selling parks, with current economic conditions I would be shocked to see a parks move easily. Remember just the other day we heard that Cedar Fair is looking to sell some of it's properties. You take that with the fact the FUN stock has (as everything else has) lost substantial value, I strongly doubt they are in a position to be looking at buying anything right now.

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What about Budweiser buying them out and making new Busch Gardens because its pretty hard to imagine Budweiser going out of business... ever because they are the biggest beer company in the country. I doubt that they're interested at all in expanding but I was just curious.

Since when was Anheuser Busch going out of business? Last time I checked they were doing fine!

 

Busch - not really into theme parks anymore

Disney/Universal - Maybe in a million years, but not anytime soon

Herschend - I can't really see them buying Six Flags at all. And even if they decide to, I can only see them buying the original three parks and some of the smaller ones in the chain.

Cedar Fair - They're considering selling some of their parks so they're not buying either.

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^ I think you misunderstood. Nothing was ever said about Bud going out of business.

 

However, just the thought that In-Bev/Bud would purchase just based on the fact that they aren't going out of business is the dumbest thing I have ever heard.

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its pretty hard to imagine Budweiser going out of business... ever because they are the biggest beer company in the country.
When I stated that they aren't in trouble of going out of business I wasn't saying that it would automatically cause them to buy the parks. I was just trying to say that because they are a beer company they're in better shape than the other theme park companies and they're in better position to buy the parks than almost anyone else. Now I do agree that that is extremely unlikely and probably not going to happen.
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Herschend - I can't really see them buying Six Flags at all. And even if they decide to, I can only see them buying the original three parks and some of the smaller ones in the chain.

 

HFEC did try to buy several SF parks a year or two ago, but fell through with the deal because Magic Mountain was being pushed on them, and they didn't want it - or so I heard. Either way, HFEC has positioned themselves for expansion. The acquisition of WA is a sure step to perfecting their model for new properties.

HFEC has also been grabbing up a bunch of auxiliary attractions recently, such as aquariums, which have been very profitable. I won't be surprised they pick up another large park soon.

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Are recycled rides like Aftershock, Dominator, Voodoo ect. owned by the parks or do the manufactures own the rights to the ride because what Six Flags could do is sell the most popular rides at those parks that aren't key parks or aren't in great shape irregardless of the economy to smaller parks that are in a position to expand. For example Six Flags America appears to have a bleak future, think about how many parks would want to purchase Superman: Ride of Steel. Maybe Six Flags could sell their best rides at those parks and then sell the parks after that. Sorry if I'm completely wrong about how things work or if thats not possible at all. I was just curious to see if thats a possibility.

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This story was printed in our local paper. I thought I would share it in case anyone was interested.

 

Here's a general thought/question that is running through my mind. Why is Six Flags giving the green light to add so many new rides and attractions to their parks if they are in debt? Wouldn't it be easier to use the money to pay off some debt?

 

http://www.suburbanchicagonews.com/newssun/business/1475720,six-flags-maybe-bankruptcy-031309.article

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I think that if the ride's good enough like Superman Ride of Steel and Six Flags is the one in position to sell it, I bet that they could get alot for it because so many of the smaller parks that are in a position to expand would pay alot for that ride. Again this is all assuming that Six Flags has the selling rights to rides and that Six Flags America goes under. Again I'm just throwing these out there and they're probably doubtful possibilites.

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^But if a smaller park had "alot" of money to throw around I don't think that they'd buy second hand rides. Even if a sell of their rides brought in 6-7 million a pop (and please keep in mind this is a GENEROUS number considering Deja Vu was a package of 3) Selling off top-tier rides to resolve the debt is flawed in two ways.

 

1) Chances are selling off even popular rides won't bring in the cash they need

 

2) Imagine MM without Tatsu, X, Deja Vu, Riddler's, Goliath and Scream, GAm Without Ultimate Flight, Raging Bull and V2, GAdv without Ka...etc. As with the rides, so too wil your guests leave.

 

Sure you can say "Well you don't have to sell THOSE rides, but if you intend to make top dollar by selling off your capital, you have to do it with something viable. If you sell your rides to a smaller park, there not going to want your 18 year old Arrow looper or 25 year old boomerang. Mark Shapiro is just going to have to pick up a night shift at the Kwik-E-Mart until this storm passes. Whether there's anything left to salvage after it leaves is still up in the air.

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^ Actually smaller parks could definately capitalize off an 18 year old Arrow Mega Looper or a Vekoma Boomerang because the GP LOVES rides that go upside down.

 

IIRC, MiA recieved a boost in attendence after adding a used SLC.

 

Now in regards to selling off major rides, Six Flags would be better off with selling the actual parks than the rides, but in today's economy and considering other companies are trying to sell off thier parks, I cannot see this happening.

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^ The economy is going to get better at some point. I wouldn't expect any sales (of parks) to go through until the economy picks up, and companies are viable again.

 

Until that point, it will have to be part of Six Flags plan to restructure once Chapter 11 is no longer a choice. I would have to think their plan is extensive and fully prepared as they've had a good year and a half to confer with creditors and other experts to get through this while keeping the parks running. Right now, it's in everone's best interest to keep the cash flowing in.

 

As for the purchasing of new rides, it sounds to me like a smart move to keep adding capitol to the parks up and until they file. After filing, I'm pretty sure all capitol ex will be temporarily frozen.

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