THIS.
Free Cash Flow is great. Cedar Fair has outlasted Six Flags because they carried more cash and had a better profit margin (light years ahead).
However, Just looking at CF's financials shows me they very well could be headed the way of Six Flags.
They have a dividend that is currently 16%. That's great if you're a stockholder, but absolutely stupid for CF to payout. They have a VERY heavy debt-load from the Paramount parks. Their current Long Term Debt/Equity ratio is 8.55! Personally as an investor, I don't consider investing in any company with a ratio of 1.5 or higher..and I only consider anything above 0.95 to 1.5 if they have a massively successful product and an inordinate amount of cash. Cedar Fair needs to slash it's dividend and take that money and pay down their debt. If they don't, they are in for some big hurt. They paid out $102 mil in dividends alone last year. Take some of that money and pay the debt!
Secondly, if CF goes to restructure their debt (which they will have to at some point, I'm sure), they will find much more difficult terms thanks to the awful credit market (it doesn't only affect individuals). In 2007, their Total Assets and Total Liabilities crawled closer to a 1:1 ratio than in 2006, which is scary. Their Net Tangible Assets went from $422 mil in 2005 to $31 mil in 2006 to -$106 mil in 2007. For the first time in a while (in 2007) they had a negative change in cash flow to the tune of -$24 million.
The company really needs to start hitting grand slams to keep their momentum going, and they just aren't that company. The economy wouldn't have for anything like that currently, anyways. I can see them filing for bankruptcy somewhere down the road so they can re-organize and come back stronger.
As someone who invests, I wouldn't touch this stock with a 10-foot pole. I've been snapping up great companies on the sell-off over the past few days that have low debt and good cash reserves. Cedar Fair does not even come close to that. They have debt the size of small banks...and we all know how those have been faring.
BTW all the financial information can be found here: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=FUN&annual
-Bryan "if you're going to buy stock in a park operator, the only one to buy is Disney" Wood