
DirkFunk
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Everything posted by DirkFunk
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Cedar Point (CP) Discussion Thread
DirkFunk replied to robbalvey's topic in Theme Parks, Roller Coasters, & Donkeys!
Sandusky is a resort town by default because industry left long ago. There's a defunct crayon/pencil factory not far from downtown. The car part plant closed after last year (it wasn't far from the Toft's factory). Big freighters pass right by the park and occasionally offload coal or ore from up north in Michigan/Ontario/Minnesota into rail cars. But most of the stuff from when it wasn't all about cheap tourism is vacant or razed. -
Cedar Point (CP) Discussion Thread
DirkFunk replied to robbalvey's topic in Theme Parks, Roller Coasters, & Donkeys!
It's already there bruh. -
Cedar Point (CP) Discussion Thread
DirkFunk replied to robbalvey's topic in Theme Parks, Roller Coasters, & Donkeys!
Prozach is right regarding Sandusky, especially around Cedar Point and the dorms. The train tracks running straight through the middle of it ,tons of brownfield, and run down commercial/industrial is a dead giveaway. I'm not saying that it is super unsafe or a war zone or anything, but it isn't anywhere anyone should aspire to live unless you're in a favela or something. Just look around as you go between the causeway and 250: there's vacants, empty foundations and lots, and a junkyard all within walking distance of the Thirsty Pony. At least the old factory next to Lyman Harbor finally came down, but now there's these monster vacant lots just sitting there with tons of lake frontage. Just when you get a little further from downtown, then, oh yeah, there's a gigantic mining operation about as big as the Cedar Point peninsula blasting away. There's some stuff I like about the park, sure, but I'd like to see them do a better job of crosspromoting with some of the other local things. For that reason, I'm really happy about the boat trips to Put-In-Bay coming back, because that's a whole different universe than most people who travel to the midwest ever get to see. The sports parks should help with that too. -
I thought Twister was hot garbage and anything in its place is an improvement, especially if I can sit down and play Bubble Witch or make pithy comments about fellow guests on Twitter instead of standing in a hot queue while waiting for a dumb attraction I will only go on when there are lines everywhere else.
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All-Season Dining has "good penetration" but sales are not what they would like, so they say. Usually if people are aware of something, think it is a good value, and desire it, they buy it. Macroeconomics 101, right? But Six Flags thinks there's room for growth. So they're just gonna keep pushing them anyways until sales increase.
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to summarize the talking points that matter -SIX stock has dropped about $3 since Wednesday AM because they missed their earnings per share number. -Attendance up overall by 5%, new events given credit. More events, which as long as it means more operating days is A-OK with me. If you want to scratch your beard and ponder something, go with this: Attendance increased in Q4 2016 by 22% over 2015. Revenue only increased by 10%. Per capita spending was down 7%, so just blaming the Peso for that difference isn't gonna fly. Overall for the year it was a bit rosier. -Season pass/membership sales are up 15% over the prior year. For FY2015, 56% of park entries was by passholders. If the ratio of visits->passholders needed to then dip for it to only be the claimed 60% of attendance in 2016. -SIX likes VR. They are planning to keep on pushing it as part of their capex strategy because it is cheap and easily marketable. -Revenue is down $5 million for the quarter because the Vietnamese investors wanting a Six Flags forgot to pay. Oops! They are assured it is just a timing thing, and not that a bunch of dudes in Southeast Asia don't actually have the money for Six Flags' potentially useless branding. -In case you forgot that Six Flags' executives are sharks and not really park folks, they're really interested in the idea of setting up an REIT spinoff. This is an old trick that "activist investors" (aka human trash responsible for most everything bad about capitalism) have pushed. What the hell is an REIT? Well, it is this innovative idea to produce revenue. By splitting off the park operations from the real estate, you can obtain revenue in a whole new corporation who's job it is to maximize the value of the real estate! That didn't make sense to you? Spinning the park off from the park? Let me explain. Six Flags' parks would be run by Six Flags Inc. Six Flags Real Estate Holdings would own the land under the Six Flags parks, then charge rent to Six Flags for being on Six Flags Real Estate Holdings' land. In turn, investors receive a dividend for having bought into Six Flags Real Estate Holdings (the REIT). For the REIT, the success of the parks would then make the land they're on more valuable. But also other things can make land more valuable, like residential development. And also make REITs less invest-able, like higher federal interest rates. Let me summarize then: Six Flags wants to split in two, and the part that's possibly worth the most (the land) is going to be divested from the parks. Do you like the parks? Good. But just know that the odds increase dramatically that one can be sold off by doing this regardless of its performance. -Remember what I said about there being 60% of visits belonging to season passholders? So Six Flags is still arguing that the remaining 40% of single day guests are a strong potential source of new memberships. Problem? Diminishing returns. In FY2015, season passholder growth was at 26%. This year was 15%. Aggressively pushing passes next year might show another surge. But probably not. The larger your passholder base grows, the less potential there is for significant growth. In 2008, just before bankruptcy, season passes were responsible for less than 30% of visitation to the chain's parks. They've doubled that. But even if they managed to keep the growth levels high, at some point they max out of potential season passholders. They hit market saturation. Then what? -Selling dining passes is still deemed low compared to season pass holder sales. Is it because there isn't a demand from "Active Pass Holders" (deemed to be a 1/3 of the passholder base)? They don't think so. They're gonna ride that hard this year. -About capex: Like Bill said, they're planning to reduce it. Not the first call in which they've said that. Spending on infrastructure is part of that, since the new additions generally go with rehabs of areas into technicolor nightmares. Don't expect anything to change. Stop holding your breath for a giga anywhere. It isn't just a bad look: oxygen deprivation can cause brain damage and death.
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No. No they would not. But if they had bought CF in 2009, they would be very happy If you bought $1000 in Six Flags stock in February 2009, you would have $0 now. If you bought $1000 in Cedar Fair stock in February 2009, you'd have roughly $8600 (not including dividends). Chapter 11 is one helluva thing.
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Better yet, what evidence is there that Six Flags intends to increase per capita spending? Everything they've said in recent years suggests that they are willing to accept a decrease in per capita spending to get an increase in overall attendance and advance sales. What Six Flags is doing is very much like what they did in the Story era, except with one large and significant difference. Rather than attempt to cut costs wherever and appeal to what is effectively lowest common denominator along with massive expansion, they seem to accept that operating a limited number of facilities in extremely specific markets with that business plan can potentially be successful. The issue they will have is that the growth cannot continue forever. Expanding the season to include Christmas in most markets can't be done again. There's a pretty consistent base of visitors that they've got, and they aren't creating any potential additional revenue streams to tap into those once they've saturated the season pass market. They can't grow the season pass base by 20-30% every year indefinitely. As for whether or not they'll build a giga coaster: No. They are not building any gigacoasters any time soon anywhere. Six Flags doesn't believe it is necessary right now to build the kind of roller coasters they historically had to generate the kind of numbers they seek.
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Playland's Castaway Cove Discussion Thread
DirkFunk replied to boldikus's topic in Theme Parks, Roller Coasters, & Donkeys!
People laughed because management and S&S/Sansei appeared inept. No one put a gun to their head and told them to try and open the ride for a day in December to claim it as a "new for 2016" attraction, most certainly not ACE (who requires parasitic relationships with parks to be in any way, shape or form relevant). If they felt that they had to do that for their regulars/best customers, certainly that wasn't the enthusiasts who usually blow through town in a matter of minutes to go on the bare minimum of rides before continuing on to the next boardwalk. It looks like they'll be finishing up construction after some 16-17 months. Maybe they actually bit off more than they could chew? Maybe the parts keep being delayed because their checks keep getting lost in the mail? Funny how all the bits for the Six Flags Freeflys seem to arrive on time and bolted together just fine. -
Cedar Point (CP) Discussion Thread
DirkFunk replied to robbalvey's topic in Theme Parks, Roller Coasters, & Donkeys!
They just progressively push the price up with each price being a sale until they get to the final amount of $219 or whatever it is. -
Cedar Point (CP) Discussion Thread
DirkFunk replied to robbalvey's topic in Theme Parks, Roller Coasters, & Donkeys!
I would have appreciated the arcing motion the whole thing would have made from the top of the first drop, but I'm fairly certain that 5 seconds of entertainment wouldn't have been worth a ban. -
Cedar Point (CP) Discussion Thread
DirkFunk replied to robbalvey's topic in Theme Parks, Roller Coasters, & Donkeys!
The apocryphal story is that Sandor Kernacs did and basically said "nah". I was extremely not there and have never heard the story confirmed by anyone who I would consider an authority. -
Theme parks and coasters in the snow
DirkFunk replied to thrillrider's topic in Theme Parks, Roller Coasters, & Donkeys!
Yeah, it is extremely dead and recycled into engine blocks by now. That picture is at least 30 years old. -
40 *MORE* Random Questions
DirkFunk replied to boldikus's topic in Theme Parks, Roller Coasters, & Donkeys!
Specifically? Man, I dunno. I don't really go anywhere specifically/only for the park. I guess I went to Universal Singapore and it being there was a selling point, so that. That's really far. Are you a cop too? Equal wait times? VR Coaster. Just in general? Whichever one is significantly shorter. Yes. :sniffs armpits: Drinking alcohol. Late night. Fried cheese on a stick. Fujiyama, Helix, CĂș Chulainn. Yes and yes. 2 1/2 hours. Chance Inverter. Dole Whip is too easy to name but it springs to mind. The VR coaster since it loads at a glacial pace. Millennium Force. I'd be able to use that one the most and get the most enjoyment out of it. Nah. Hyper. One of the mine trains - Disney Paris or Walibi Belgium. Shoot the Rapids. If that doesn't count because it is thankfully dead, then, uhh, I dunno. The others produce acceptable wetness for the style. That ride was total garbage. If you defended it existing, you are a bad person or a shill. Airtime. B&M Hypers. LOL, cash. I can't invest or gamble front of line access. I trudge because my use of the dryer has never been particularly useful. Mac and cheese served in the torn off top of a styrofoam take-home container. Magnum. 1.3. I spend the next day doing somas. Man, I dunno, the one at Ocean City MD? Movieland Studios. Not joking. I have a gimmick to uphold. Six Flags America. No contest. LOL. I have no idea. Something other than Superman at Darien Lake though. Jr Gemini or whatever its called and the bounce house shaped like Snoopy. Its a small world theme. Favorite coaster, assuming it is actually good and not trash. The best of a bad bunch is still bad. Probably not. Mystic Timbers. Starlight Spectacular. Dick, what were you thinking? Edmonton Mindbender. Increasingly many of them. Chinese fingertraps. Chinese fingertraps as of 5 minutes after I won it. -
Trip Advice: Atlantic Seaboard Piers
DirkFunk replied to ElvisLuv's topic in Theme Parks, Roller Coasters, & Donkeys!
I'd go to Ocean City & Rehoboth and spare myself hours of extra driving/expense of a ferry to ride a different Boomerang. -
Cedar Point (CP) Discussion Thread
DirkFunk replied to robbalvey's topic in Theme Parks, Roller Coasters, & Donkeys!
Millennium Force, at its strongest, produces negative g-sensations that are less powerful than pretty much any of the B&M hypers. If anything, it is just people acting consistent in their derision. One of the stronger statements I've heard against the ride is that "I can go 90 in a car or motorcycle, what's the big deal?" Admittedly this is a kill the messenger thing, but that same person that always said that to me hadn't driven anything bigger than a go-kart in something like 20 years. 90 MPH in a vehicle with no windshield with major elevation changes even remotely resembling that of MF would be terrifying/exciting as hell. If a 300 foot, nearly vertical drop and a average speed probably >50MPH doesn't do it for you, you need to get out of this hobby and take up racing sport bikes or something. You're wasting your money and time. -
Cedar Point (CP) Discussion Thread
DirkFunk replied to robbalvey's topic in Theme Parks, Roller Coasters, & Donkeys!
*pops head in window* I think the cross platform use considerations are wise but I am not convinced about some of the categories. "Social butterflies" takes you to events and upcharge drink plans? I mean, OK, that wasn't what I was thinking it would do but sure. (also: so much for the all you can drink plan. souvenir bottles are back for 2017 BAYBAY) *turns, walks away from open window* -
Cedar Point (CP) Discussion Thread
DirkFunk replied to robbalvey's topic in Theme Parks, Roller Coasters, & Donkeys!
I was joking awhile ago when I said that people would be claiming this ride would be a new for 2017 straight through October. Now I'm convinced they really will claim that. -
Rye's been doing it forever and a day, and honestly, most of the moves they made were terrible and led to their current situation. I've heard the log flume is a situation where whoever originally owned it was basically just stacking money. Not sure if they ever got around to buying it out. Coney Island is another example where the land is leased to Zamperla to do their thing. Kentucky Kingdom is basically a vendor operation. Indiana Beach's Fascination and Taco stands aren't run by Indiana Beach - they're leased to the operators. Why else do you think the same asian woman runs the Fascination parlor literally every single day of the season?
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Knoebels' strategy is an outlier right now among parks of that size because they're highly decentralized. Many of the food options in the park aren't run by the park, but rather by outside vendors for whom operation in Knoebels is their business and which they are responsible to staff/operate. I believe that some of the rides are too (Roll-O-Plane being one I've specifically heard) are also owned/operated by these vendors rather than Knoebels. The huge campground serves as their "on site hotel" with the park, pool, and golf course being the amenities to try and lure people in. For the locals, which is a comparatively sparse population and not necessarily high income, the park has no gate or parking fees to entice them to show up as much as possible and spend money. They're traded the advance purchase income that Six Flags, Cedar Fair, and SeaWorld are chasing with their business models for something that is far friendlier to a wider swath of people. It seems to be working.