Can someone explain why we are so sure we are not getting a coaster this year? I'm not sure where they would put it, but it's certainly not impossible to find a space (even without going into the back area by Excalibur) - and other than a lack of strong rumors and space, I don't see or know of any reason it couldn't be.
And looking at the park's history, the longest gap in new coasters was 9 years, and the average is around 5 years, so the 9 years since renegade (to next season) is firmly on the side of 'due' for a new one.
Personally, I'd say there is at least a 40% chance of a coaster. Renegade, Steel Venom, Mad Mouse, and even Wild Thing were announced at about this same time in the year. At least Renegade looks like they had not started any construction of any kind until after the announcement was made - though I don't know what we had for rumors ahead of time.
So does anyone have a strong reason to think it couldn't reasonably be a coaster? Or knowledge of how rumors have been for past projects? I'm new here, so there may well be something you all know that I have missed...