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mark549

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Posts posted by mark549

  1. I feel like masks at a theme park poses many questions. Do we wear them on rides? What if they fall off? We need to take them off when we eat or drink (which is quite often at a theme park). Doesn't that defeat the whole purpose? Will little kids even keep theirs on?

     

    Same with social distancing. We can run rides at half capacity, use every other switchback, etc. But it's a theme park. I feel like it is actually impossible to social distance. It is very different than a restaurant, bar, or gym where enforcing it is much more practical and reasonable.

     

    I don't know. If all these crazy rules are in place at a theme park (such as wearing a mask, trying to social distance, rides operating at half capacity, services closed, limited attractions), I don't even wanna go yet. I would rather wait until next year altogether. What's the point of going to a theme park if it's a total warzone and you cannot enjoy yourself?

     

     

    To repeat, I think that's why Cedar Fair extended the 2020 passes through 2021. Cases are still rising in many states and could rise much more as things partially reopen.

     

    Filmmaker Michael Moore gave an interview last week where he said his source(s) at National Institutes of Health told him to expect a two year corona crisis (until a vaccine is ready, assuming those efforts will be successful).

  2. I expect the lawyers who work for insurance companies will have a major role in determining when any of these parks will reopen. Imagine the liabilities if a park reopens and there's an outbreak traced to them. I think Cedar Fair has a better understanding of this than Six flags due to extending their 2020 passes to the end of 2021. If there's a second wave of cases (likely given simmering frustration with closures) then large gatherings may be unlikely this year.

     

    TL, DR - I doubt any will open back up unless or until their insurers are willing to guarantee coverage

  3. Georgia will be a good case study with most "gathering" type businesses being able to reopen by the end of the month. Hopefully it works out and will serve as a blueprint for the rest of the nation.

     

    Besides Atlanta being a massive metropolitan area it's easy to forget that the rest of Georgia is fairly rural and the population density is considerably lower. I hate to call something this serious a "case study" but I agree and hopefully it does go well for them.

     

     

    Albany, Georgia, a rural town in southwest GA, is a CV hotspot. Their local hospital is full of CV patients.

     

    Their governor said earlier this month he had only just learned that the disease can be spread by asymptomatic carriers, information that was publicly available in January. I hope to be wrong, but I don't think the reopening will last long.

     

    If everyone really took this seriously the crisis would already be over because the virus cannot live outside a host (humans).

  4. I am beginning to doubt that we will see a 2020 season anywhere.

     

    It would require a vaccine, lots of treatments or at the least, lots of testing for the disease and for antibodies (for those who've had it, assuming they are immune). Large gatherings will probably be last to resume.

     

    I think Cedar Fair (your 2020 pass is good for 2021, too) is more realistic than Six Flags (you get a few extra months on your 2020 pass). Or maybe Six Flags is still in the "bargaining" phase and hasn't gotten to "acceptance."

     

    Lots of variables could change these assumptions in either direction, but the entertainment industry isn't likely to reopen until everything else does.

     

     

     

    https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/04/15/los-angeles-mayor-garcetti-large-gatherings-vpx.cnn

    Los Angeles mayor says large gatherings unlikely until 2021

     

    Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti said it "would be very difficult to see" large gatherings like sporting events or concerts resuming in the city before 2021 as the US grapples with the coronavirus pandemic.

  5. by bert425 » Fri Apr 10, 2020 9:17 pm

     

    Gov. Abbott and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick both had press conferences today and leaks are coming that Abbot is going to have an executive order to reopen Texas non-essential businesses at some point next week.

     

    Abbott has been in constant contact with Trump (per the local news). . .and they are itching to get the economy going again ASAP regardless of any pesky pandemic.

     

    Leaks from a round-table that Patrick was involved in say he wants things open back up by May 1.

     

     

    all I can say is: Idiots

     

    (if the science is there? yep, fine. . but all the Doctors are saying it's too soon, and wait until June).

     

    so we'll continue to be staying home, regardless of what our Gov & Lt. Governor say.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    I saw that on a news feed and wasn't sure how accurate it was. I guess, unfortunately for you, that will make Texas a big experiment and it will be interesting to see how much it swings the other states one way or the other. Stay safe!

     

     

    Meanwhile, Texas is requiring people to quarantine when arriving from other states! I think that is unprecedented in US history. (Several other states have similar requirements today.)

     

    https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-announces-expanded-health-care-capacities-in-texas-issues-executive-orders-to-expand-quarantines-and-protect-public-safety

  6. While this is a new virus, nothing I have seen suggests it somehow is completely different from all other known versions of the Coronavirus.

     

    The extreme infectiousness and the wide range of impacts (from asymptomatic to needing ICU) are different than SARS and MERS, among others.

     

    Given how the exponential increases are unfolding in tropical countries, including those without much of an air conditioning culture, the hope that this will fade because of warmer weather may be the "bargaining" phase (in the five stages of reaching acceptance).

     

    If amusement parks reopen perhaps their gift shops will have themed face masks.

     

    More seriously, I'm anticipating that after this subsides and the serological testing is unveiled to test blood for antibodies (ie. someone has had CV and recovered, whether mild or not), we will all probably have some sort of go / no go indicator, electronic tag, Apple watch, something that shows our antibody status. If you've had it (or are vaccinated, if or when that is available), you can go out in public, go to theme parks, baseball games, teach in schools, etc. Just an informed guess ...

     

    Stay safe and sane, everyone.

  7. yeah.. new estimates are that Texas will peak May 5. . so still over 4 weeks away.

     

    I think the Texas parks will be lucky if they are able to open back up in June.

     

    The key with all these things is that they are ESTIMATES. There are a ton of variables. The target dates for anything are all moving at this point. We could be lucky and at least have it manageable by the end of April when the CDC guidelines end, or it could still be bad. We just don't know at this point.

     

     

    It seems likely, paying attention to the epidemiologists and virologists, that the "end of April" is an initial way to say "until summer" just like saying "15 days" was an initial way to get people used to what is needed.

     

    This interview with a world class coronavirus expert (who ironically caught it in New York and is in slow recovery) suggests that it will be about six weeks to get past the peak, if Dr. Fauci's recommendations are followed. So early May, if all goes well, with a subsidence afterwards. Of course, all of these are estimates, but based on what happened in Wuhan, Italy, Spain and now New York.

     

    https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-special-lipkin/

     

    Not exactly an interview normally relevant to TPR ... but it's the most informative interview I've heard about CV and useful for considering if coasters may be rideable this year.

     

    ---

     

    sorry I forget which news link this is from, but it suggests what the time scale will be

     

     

    Virginia governor issues stay-at-home order

     

    Virginia residents will live under a stay-at-home order until mid-June as the region around Washington DC moved towards a lockdown on Monday.

     

    Ralph Northam, the Democratic governor of Virginia, ordered the state's residents to stay at home "except in extremely limited circumstances" until June 10. Other states have generally issued orders that are scheduled to end in April.

     

    The order on Monday followed a similar announcement by Larry Hogan, the Republican governor of Maryland. Both states border Washington DC and are home to many US federal workers who live in the Virginia and Maryland suburbs that surround the capital.

  8. www.theguardian.com

     

    Four passengers aboard Zaandam cruise ship dead from flu-like symptoms

     

    Four passengers of the Zaandam cruise ship have died from what appears to be Covid-19, according to the Miami Herald. About 150 passengers on the ship, which is awaiting permission to pass through the Panama Canal, with the end destination of Port Everglades in Florida, have developed flu-like symptoms. Carnival Corp. is the owner of the ship.

     

    The captain of the ship announced the deaths to crew members and passengers Friday afternoon and said that healthy passengers would be evacuated onto a nearby sister ship.

     

    Cruise ships have been a hotbed for the spread of Covid-19, starting with the Diamond Princess, which was quarantined off the coast of Japan in early February and saw more than 700 people onboard infected. At least 25 other cruise ships have seen confirmed cases onboard.

  9. I suspect the decision to reopen will be reversed. Lots of pressure not to cancel the Olympics.

     

    Spain kept open lots of big events over the past month and now they are in really bad shape.

     

    S. Korea seems to have handled this better than Japan. They've done as much testing as any country and may have a grip on the grippe.

     

    And of course much of East Asia has had mask wearing in public as part of the culture for along time.

     

     

    https://japantoday.com/category/national/amusement-parks-to-resume-some-operations-in-virus-hit-japan

     

    https://japantoday.com/category/national/japan-testing-for-coronavirus-at-fraction-of-capacity

    "don't test, don't tell"

  10. Guys I think we finally have some good news: https://www.businessinsider.com/malaria-pill-chloroquine-tested-as-coronavirus-treatment-2020-3

     

    Chloroquine is cheap, available, has limited side effects, and is already approved by the FDA. If more tests show good news the shut down and mass panic can hopefully end in month.

    Let's hope so! Additionally we could have one more 'weapon' soon: warm weather. If this COVID19 responds the same way as seasonal flu, this could help flatten the curve sooner. Australia has cases, but not nearly as rampant. Summer just ended there.

     

    There has been discussion about warm weather by the medical community studying this. It's an unknown. Some of the tropical countries with this, ie. Singapore, have an air conditioning culture. Thailand supposedly does not have many cases but I've also read they have a large number of unspecific "viral pneumonia" (aka CV). And even if it does subside in summer there could be renewed cases in the fall. Chloroquine and / or other antivirals may be the quickest resolution. Or not.

     

    California's action for statewide shutdown is astonishing. If / when there is a national shutdown, even more so.

     

    One of our adaptations as a species is our ability to cooperate, share food, empathy, and this is a test of that.

  11. Granted the source may be a little biased, but...

     

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-19/trump-touts-malaria-drug-as-potential-coronavirus-treatment

     

    It's not FDA approved, but US doctors are legally allowed to prescribe it for treatment of COVID-19. I'm not on the Trump hater bandwagon, but he really sucks at jumping the gun with his statements. Either way, it looks like the drug is mostly good to go for now, at least as an optimistic temporary treatment until a vaccine or better treatment option is discovered.

     

    IL is shutting down. I think an allout quarantine is in the works, which is the rumor. I had to squeeze in a haircut today, because my barber shop said they're waiting on word to temporarily close. Also, even our neighbors in MO are feeling the pressure. My orthopedic doctor across the river (STL) called me today and gave me great news that not only is my appointment for my rotator cuff tear on Monday cancelled, but they said to call them in ten weeks. Holy fffk terrible news for me! If surgery is necessary that will mean I'll probably be hampered by this for over year since my initial November injury.

     

    I stopped by Walmart and it was even more of a shitshow than I thought it would be. Almost all of the usual canned vegetables are gone, with I'd guess 75% of all canned good eats being gone. I grabbed one of three ramaining hamburger packages. I'd say 75% of other chicken, beef, and pork products were gone. The cheese was cleared TF out. No eggs were to be found. 90% of the frozen foods were gone. Diapers were almost gone. They miraculously had about 20 packs of toilet paper remaining that people were jumping on. There were zero disinfectant or sanitizer products available. Laundry detergent was almost bare. Not that I eat it, but it seems like Mac and Cheese is the new toilet paper, as it's almost impossible to buy now. People were noting it on my Snapchat and I had to see for myself! The good news is that all fresh produce is available, which leads me to believe that people are buying emergency items that they can freeze or easily store.

     

    I also bought several hundred shares of Cedar Fair (FUN) and Sea World (SEAS) on Wednesday when prices were damned good. It was a safe buy that will profit before too long, but I'll be damned if the prices didn't eat shit and fall of the charts later that day.

     

    I hope Chloroquine works out as a treatment and I hope even more that we can find a vaccine soon. I'm not hitting the panic button yet, but from a selfish economic standpoint this is very unsettling. Luckily, we're set up to make it through on one income if need be, but what a time to have a baby due in May!

     

    I usually don't cope with alcohol. But tonight, before I have to work all weekend, I'm having a few drinks.

     

     

    Sorry again to hear of your medical situation. Ouch. In my state, virtually everything medical - and especially dental - is being shut down in anticipation. My local hospital just had its first CV death.

     

    Suggestion on cleaners. There's no need for fancy sanitizers - regular soap works fine to ruin the virus (and clean you and your stuff). In my community, mallwart and costco have been besieged but the health food stores have been in better shape. Maybe they have a better national distribution system, or maybe customers are more used to making meals from scratch? Bidets may become popular to reduce toilet paper use (like in Japan).

     

    I don't have stock in FUN, etc. but do have a 2020 season pass for Great America (CA), because of Railblazer. Hope to be able to use it, not for my own enjoyment but it would show things have settled down enough. Chloroquine, remdesivir and the rest of the anti-virals are what I'm hoping for. Chloroquine is common and cheap but getting enough doses everywhere, assuming that is really as effective as thought, is going to take more complex logistics than realizing promises of drive through testing.

     

    We are living in "interesting times."

  12. Guys I think we finally have some good news: https://www.businessinsider.com/malaria-pill-chloroquine-tested-as-coronavirus-treatment-2020-3

     

    Chloroquine is cheap, available, has limited side effects, and is already approved by the FDA. If more tests show good news the shut down and mass panic can hopefully end in month.

     

    Can someone smarter than me explain as to why a malaria pill would even do anything? The two diseases have some wildly different symptoms. Or are we at the "nothing else has worked, let's pull a pill out of a hat and try it" phase?

     

     

     

    Chloroquine phosphate has shown apparent efficacy in treatment of

    COVID-19 associated pneumonia in clinical studies. - PubMed - NCBI

     

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32074550/ [1]

  13. mass panic that caused those traffic jams killed more people than the hurricane itself. We will see the same with this virus...

     

    I hope you are right but all of the doctors, nurses and other people I know in the health care system (family and friends) have the opposite view from yours.

     

    France and Spain just shut down, that isn't done for the flu or irrational panic.

     

    The whistleblower doctor in Wuhan, China was 34 when he died of this.

     

    The US Surgeon General said today elective surgeries should no longer happen in our country to focus medical resources. I can't remember that ever having been said before.

  14. Oh let's not get this twisted. All of these cancellations are on the advice of accountants and lawyers, not doctors.

     

     

    I'm sure lawyers were involved, but it was doctors who drafted pandemic response plans (decades ago). Because testing was minimal, closing everything is the only thing left to do. If the shutdowns are adhered to, then restarting everything can happen sooner. But not this month. Flatten the curve. Slow the Spread. Social Distancing. Protect nurses and doctors.

     

    scmp.com has an article today about how some "recovered" patients have 20 to 30 percent lung function reduction.

     

    From a coaster perspective, interesting that Iron Gwazi was completed just in time and has had passengers (RMC crew). Standing But Not Operating.

  15. A Message from Richard Zimmerman, Chief Executive Officer,

    Cedar Fair Entertainment Company

     

    Dear Valued Guest,

     

    At Cedar Fair, there is nothing more important than the safety of our guests and associates. This is our highest priority now and always.

     

    As we continue to monitor developments surrounding the Coronavirus (COVID-19), we want to provide you with another park update. We will be postponing the opening of California's Great America this season until Saturday, April 4. We believe this decision is in the best interest of our associates, our guests, and our community.

     

    We will work with guests who have prepaid tickets during the time period of our park closure. Refunds may be requested at social@cagreatamerica.com.

     

    We continue to implement preventive measures as recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) as well as our own health and hygiene protocols. Additionally, we are maintaining close relationships with local, state, national and international public health authorities and are taking their guidance as additional preventive measures are deemed necessary.

     

    Our guests and associates are considered family. We have your well-being at the forefront of our decision-making. We appreciate your continued loyalty and trust in Cedar Fair and our family of parks and resorts.

     

    Sincerely,

     

    Richard Zimmerman

    Chief Executive Officer

    Cedar Fair Entertainment Company

  16. Everyone just needs to wash their damn hands and live their life. Except for old people. They should stay home until we know WTF is actually going on.

    It might be this easy if it weren't for the media fear mongering on a daily basis.

     

     

    I respectfully suggest reading accounts from doctors in northern Italy today who are no longer able to treat everyone and are stuck doing triage. they are overworked - in Italy's wealthiest region (near Gardaland). Plus, it is also disrupting other types of treatments. Broken arm? Appendicitis? Kidney stones? Sorry but the doctors are too busy and exhausted to see you.

     

    Here is a good account from Italy:

     

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/canada-covid-19-coronavirus-spread-hospital-surge-capacity-ventilators-1.5493178

     

    The documentation from China and Italy does tell us WTF is going on. Slowing the spread is the only option now. It's going to be inconvenient for all of us. If we can slow the spread now the inconvenience might be less.

     

    This is not political, it's much bigger than that. Glad to see costs being waived for tests (if you can find one), treatments, co pays, sick leave getting covered, etc.

     

    As for blocking travel from Europe (or anywhere), it's a bit late for that given it's already seeded around our country.

  17. It's starting to look that way, and I worry how it's going to affect smaller parks. The big ones are going to take losses, the investors are going to lose money (boo-hoo, so sad), but the parks are still going to be there. The parks without deep pockets could really suffer, though.

     

     

    When I heard that Indiana Beach, et al. had closed, that was my thought (the investors don't want this hassle).

     

    Maybe SIX and FUN and the other chains will bounce back afterwards.

     

    Seattle now bans gatherings of 250 people. Including sports events ... that shows seriousness.

     

    Meanwhile, northern Italy's hospitals are overflowing, with triage decisions underway. The only thing left now is "social distancing." Looking forward to the end of pandemic parties, but that won't be this month.

  18. Glad your city is being proactive for public health and that supporters of SXSW are helping those economically hurt by this.

     

    Italy put a moratorium on mortgage payments. San Jose (next to CGA) CA is prohibiting evictions by those who lose their salaries. Seattle is setting up washing stations for homeless people. These and lots of other steps might be able to reduce the impact to keep the disruptions as short as possible.

     

    The Santa Clara order specifically excludes Great America since people are dispersed in the park (except while waiting in lines ...).

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