Cedar Fair Corporate Development Discussion Thread (FUN)

P. 151: CF releases Full Year 2018 figures
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Re: Cedar Fair Corporate Development Discussion Thread

Postby Coasterguy21 » Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:11 pm

coasterbill wrote:I don't have the energy this, but a few quick things.

- As Sven20 said, nobody knows what the numbers mean for Six Flags. It's been about a year since they had a quarter that you could reasonably compare to a previous year. Q4 will always be up because they seem to add a winter event to a new park every year so they have way more operating dates year over yeaer. Q1 was up because Magic Mountain added tons of operating dates compared to last year. Q2 was up because for the last 2 weeks of Q2 they had 5 more parks which ends up giving them about 70 more operating dates. Q3, Q4, Q1 next year and Q2 next year will be up no matter what because they'll have these parks driving pass sales and giving them additional operating dates when compared to the previous year. Q4 will also have new operating dates from Frontier City (through December), Darien Lake (in October) and Holiday in the Park at Six Flags Great America. ...tl;dr: No sh*t Six Flags is up. :lol:

- Enthusiasts love to pretend that **insert thing they don't like about a park / chain here** explains everything bad that happens to them because they want it to be true. That said, nothing has changed in that regard for about a decade. It's totally nonsensical to attribute this sudden drop to something that's remained constant for years.

- Indications are that the biggest drops seem to be at Cedar Point and Kings Island, two parks that have built huge, awesome coasters in the last 2 years. There goes your " if you build it they will come" argument. Cedar Point built the ride that people have been clamoring for for years and they certainly did not come. Kings Dominion built their most amazing thrill ride in a decade and they weren't mentioned as a big success story with that either (though we don't know the numbers park by park so we're just going by what we could discern from the conference call).


Don't come in here making sense Bill!! Everyone knows that if Michigan's Adventure got a B&M Invert, they'd push over 1.5 million and if Valleyfair got that B&M Giga, they'd pull in the same number of attendees as Cedar Point. It's clear that if you build it, they will come!!

All jokes aside, you struck the nail right on the head. I do, however, like the direction Cedar Fair is going with their ideas and that does give some parks hope in the future. But, at this point, it is what it is. It's a strong portfolio and 2018 just isn't operating at a good pace. Hopefully Q3 & Q4 operate better!
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Re: Cedar Fair Corporate Development Discussion Thread

Postby Rougarou » Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:44 pm

Bring back Ouimet!
Zimmerman creeps me out...

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Re: Cedar Fair Corporate Development Discussion Thread

Postby grsupercity » Wed Aug 22, 2018 12:48 pm

Rougarou wrote:Bring back Ouimet!
Zimmerman creeps me out...


Bring back Dick Kinzel!! But did not mean for the this thread to escalade so quickly. I swear I read someone that 6flags attendance and earnings were up while cedar fair attendance and profits were down. If I am wrong I will happily go lay next to my bowl. Considering six flags removed half of there off seasons could easily explain everything.
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Re: Cedar Fair Corporate Development Discussion Thread (FUN)

Postby larrygator » Sun Sep 09, 2018 8:45 pm

Cedar Fair definitely wants investors to forgot the past two months where the stock dropped twelve points from $65 - $53 leading to the disappointing 2nd Quarter Report. We usually don't see companies release monthly data. They released data for the month of August which was extremely strong. It doesn't make-up for the shortfall over the first 7 months of the year, but Cedar Fair is eager to get that positive news out there aggressively well ahead of the 3Q report expected in November.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cedar-fair-reports-record-revenues-080000598.html

Cedar Fair Reports Record Revenues In August
PR Newswire•September 6, 2018

- Strong performance in August driven by increases in attendance (+5%), guest spending (+1%) and out-of-park revenues (+7%).

- Company reiterates its commitment to 4% distribution growth.

SANDUSKY, Ohio, Sept. 6, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- Cedar Fair Entertainment Company (FUN), a leader in regional amusement parks, water parks and immersive entertainment, today announced that preliminary results for the five weeks ended Monday, September 3, 2018, represented record revenues for the fiscal month of August.

For the five weeks, preliminary net revenues were $288 million, up 6%, or $17 million, when compared with the same period in 2017. This was the result of a 5%, or 255,000-visit, increase in attendance, a 1%, or $0.52, increase in average in-park per capita spending and a 7%, or $2 million, increase in out-of-park revenues, including resort accommodations.

"Over the past five weeks we have experienced strong growth across all aspects of our business, reaffirming our confidence in the resiliency of our business model and the outlook for growth in the business for the long term," said Richard Zimmerman, Cedar Fair's president and CEO. "During this time, we successfully executed on a number of initiatives designed to drive guest urgency while at the same time maintaining integrity in our pricing structure. These efforts resulted in a solid lift in attendance and increased guest spending inside our parks during the period. We also saw robust demand for our hotel and resort accommodations, an asset class we are actively developing in an effort to generate additional and attractive returns over the longer term. Looking ahead, we believe these strong results reflect the positive response from consumers for the compelling entertainment experiences we provide to our guests of all ages, and we expect that to continue for the balance of the year."

Year-to-date preliminary net revenues through Labor Day, September 3, 2018, were $1.04 billion, up slightly when compared with the similar period through Labor Day, September 4, 2017. The 2018 results compared with 2017 reflect increases of 1%, or $0.38, in average in-park per capita spending to $47.46 and 5%, or $5 million, in out-of-park revenues, including resort accommodations, to $120 million. These increases were offset by a 1%, or 225,000-visit, decrease in attendance to 20.0 million guest visits.

"For the remainder of the year, we are focused on building upon the momentum we have established over the past five weeks," continued Zimmerman. "Our near-term strategy includes fully maximizing the potential of our very popular seasonal celebrations including Halloween Haunt, The Great Pumpkin Fest and WinterFest. Our fourth quarter has become a meaningful period of operations, particularly as we leverage our highly popular fall events to jump-start sales of our 2019 season pass and all-season products, which are off to a strong start."

Zimmerman noted that the strong August results were not enough to entirely overcome the challenges the Company faced through the first seven months of the year. Based on the year-to-date results and outlook for the rest of the year, the Company now expects 2018 full-year net revenues to be in the range of $1.32 billion to $1.34 billion, and full-year Adjusted EBITDA1 to be in the range of $460 million to $470 million. Zimmerman also reiterated the Company's commitment to delivering a steady 4% annual increase in the cash distribution to unitholders while continuing to invest in the business at a responsible level.
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Re: Cedar Fair Corporate Development Discussion Thread (FUN)

Postby coasterbill » Wed Feb 13, 2019 1:51 pm

Cedar Fair has released their numbers for 2018

Cedar Fair parks recover from slow first half, report attendance, spending growth for 2018

SANDUSKY, Ohio – Cedar Fair, which reported a disappointing 3 percent drop in attendance through the first half of 2018, ended the year with a bang: up in attendance, in-park spending and net revenue.

During a conference call with analysts Wednesday, Cedar Fair President and CEO Richard Zimmerman predicted a strong 2019, driven by an increasing number of can’t-miss special events designed to attract more people to the park, especially early in the season. Cedar Fair, headquartered in Sandusky, is the parent company of flagship park Cedar Point, 10 other amusement parks, three waterparks and four hotels.

Zimmerman also said that the company may stretch the time between major new rides opening at some parks. (He called it “stretching out the cadence of the more significant investments.”)

Citing Cedar Point’s record-breaking roller coaster Steel Vengeance, which debuted in 2018, and Carowinds’ acclaimed Fury 325, new in 2015, Zimmerman said: “We can continue to leverage those for many years in our marketing campaigns.”

Later on in the conversation, however, in response to a question about this new capital-spending strategy, Cedar Fair Executive Vice President Brian Witherow emphasized: “We are not walking away from those investments.”

He mentioned two new coasters coming in 2019, Yukon Striker at Canada’s Wonderland and Copperhead Strike at Carowinds in Charlotte, North Carolina.

But, he said, any major capital expenditures will be coupled with bigger and better special events.

Company officials continue to blame the disappointing first half of the year on lousy weather, including heavy rains and flooding in the eastern United States. The drop in attendance, according to Witherow, was not “representative of a broader trend.”

Proof of that: 6 percent attendance growth from August through the end of the year, which, combined with the first six months, resulted in an overall 1 percent attendance growth across the company. Per capita spending was up 1 percent, as well, to a record $47.69. Cedar Fair does not release attendance figures for individual parks.

One way to mitigate the effects of weather and other outside factors, according to Zimmerman, is to offer more events that “create a sense of urgency.” Zimmerman said several announcements about new events would be coming in the next several weeks.

Zimmerman cited Knott’s Berry Farm, near Los Angeles, as a park that is thriving, despite not having a new roller coaster in 20 years (it finally got a new one, HangTime, in 2018). Popular events that attract repeat visitors include the annual Boysenberry Festival and Ghost Town Alive!

He added that some of the busiest days in all Cedar Fair parks are in October, when Halloween-themed events, including Cedar Point’s HalloWeekends, attract huge crowds. WinterFest, the company’s holiday-themed event, also has been a hit at select parks (debuting at Canada’s Wonderland in 2019).

Other interesting revelations from the call:

* Cedar Fair plans to test a new loyalty and rewards program for season passholders in 2019, with a broader rollout in 2020. Zimmerman provided few program details, other than to say passholders could earn and redeem rewards as they visited the park more often.

* Out-of-park revenue continues to increase, up 6 percent in 2018, thanks to higher occupancy levels at park hotels, and higher overnight rates. Cedar Fair continues to develop properties adjacent to its parks, adding a fifth hotel to its portfolio in 2019, a Springhill Suites adjacent to Carowinds. Also opening in 2019: a $28-million indoor sports center, part of the Cedar Point Sports Center, just east of the amusement park in Sandusky.

Cedar Point’s new attraction for 2019 is Forbidden Frontier on Adventure Island, on the land previously occupied by Dinosaurs Alive! The park has revealed few details about the interactive experience.

Zimmerman described it this way: “A real-life adventure where guests become part of the story, immersed in interactive encounters with island inhabitants and realistic experiences challenging their problem-solving skills, as the mystery of the island unfolds during the day.”

Cedar Point opens for the season May 11, with Forbidden Frontier debuting Memorial Day Weekend.


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Make no mistake, the headline is that attendance is up 1% and revenue is up 2% but these numbers are um... not good.

First of all, the average inflation rate is about 2% and I don't believe that their 2% increase in revenues is adjusted for inflation (I might be wrong) so um... woohoo?

Second of all, let's just do a quick (very rough) estimate here...

Cedar Point has 136 operating days next year. They start daily operations earlier than most parks but they open for the season later and don't do a Christmas event so let's just bump that up a bit and say that the average Cedar Fair park has 150 operating days (this is very generous since we're including Knott's Soak City and Cedar Point Shores). I could figure out the exact number but I'm not that much of a dork.

So 150 days per park x 12 seasonal parks is 1800 operating days. Add 365 for Knott's and we're at 2,165 total operating days chain wide. It's an estimate but it's probably making Cedar Fair look better than the real numbers. 1% of that is 21 to 22 operating days and Kings Dominion added (get ready for it) 25 operating days with Winterfest. There's your "growth" right there.

Average daily attendance at the parks was (at best) flat and probably down in a year where the chain added 4 expensive coasters and tons of other expensive new rides. That's terrible.

FUN stock is down about 1% today.

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Re: Cedar Fair Corporate Development Discussion Thread (FUN)

Postby joelwee » Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:25 pm

coasterbill wrote:
Zimmerman cited Knott’s Berry Farm, near Los Angeles, as a park that is thriving, despite not having a new roller coaster in 20 years (it finally got a new one, HangTime, in 2018). Popular events that attract repeat visitors include the annual Boysenberry Festival and Ghost Town Alive!


lolwut? Since Ghostrider opened in '98, Knott's has opened 5 new coasters besides Hangtime.
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Re: Cedar Fair Corporate Development Discussion Thread (FUN)

Postby DorneyKid14 » Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:40 pm

Attendance up 1% with both steel Vengeance and twisted timbers opening in the same year is not good. Itll be very interesting to see how Carowinds and Canadas Wonderland do with their new coasters this summer.
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Re: Cedar Fair Corporate Development Discussion Thread (FUN)

Postby JG-77 » Wed Feb 13, 2019 4:27 pm

I'd be interested to see the individual park figures (yes I know they don't release them), as I'd like to compare the parks that got big new additions with those that didn't. I'd also be interested in comparing other Easter park's numbers early in the year vs later in the year to see just how much of an excuse weather can be for initial poor performance.

A question for those who live near CP, KD, CGA, and KBF: How much advertising did you guys get for your new additions? A part of me wonders whether poor marketing could be partially responsible for disappointing numbers. Personally, I noticed that despite living 2-3 hours from Dorney and KD in either direction, I recieved little advertising for KD, and vitually none for Dorney (ok techincally I did get a lot of online Twisted Timbers ads, but that's probably just because of my search history). Meanwhile, I recieved regular ads from SFA and Hershey (which are significantly closer to me, but the proportions of advertising still seem quite off).

The potential marketing issues could easily just be me making things up, since I'm just a 16 year old who's never even had a paying job, but a part of me is curious to hear what you guys think.
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Re: Cedar Fair Corporate Development Discussion Thread (FUN)

Postby DorneyKid14 » Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:49 pm

JG-77 wrote:I'd be interested to see the individual park figures (yes I know they don't release them), as I'd like to compare the parks that got big new additions with those that didn't. I'd also be interested in comparing other Easter park's numbers early in the year vs later in the year to see just how much of an excuse weather can be for initial poor performance.


CP, CW, Carowinds, and KI were more than likely probably the biggest money makers, as well as the cali parks. And parks will always turn to poor weather as an excuse for bad attendance. I know dorney closed a lot this year for weather, more than the last few years. Knoebels and hershey both had the flooding issues. Parks will 100% of the time blame weather.
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Re: Cedar Fair Corporate Development Discussion Thread (FUN)

Postby Jew » Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:46 am

DorneyKid14 wrote:
JG-77 wrote:I'd be interested to see the individual park figures (yes I know they don't release them), as I'd like to compare the parks that got big new additions with those that didn't. I'd also be interested in comparing other Easter park's numbers early in the year vs later in the year to see just how much of an excuse weather can be for initial poor performance.


CP, CW, Carowinds, and KI were more than likely probably the biggest money makers, as well as the cali parks. And parks will always turn to poor weather as an excuse for bad attendance. I know dorney closed a lot this year for weather, more than the last few years. Knoebels and hershey both had the flooding issues. Parks will 100% of the time blame weather.


That’s because weather is a legitimate problem for parks. Especially regional ones who are so heavily dependent upon locals who are not likely to leave their homes in crappy weather
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