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COVID-19 Coronavirus and Theme Parks Official Thread


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yeah.. new estimates are that Texas will peak May 5. . so still over 4 weeks away.

 

I think the Texas parks will be lucky if they are able to open back up in June.

 

The key with all these things is that they are ESTIMATES. There are a ton of variables. The target dates for anything are all moving at this point. We could be lucky and at least have it manageable by the end of April when the CDC guidelines end, or it could still be bad. We just don't know at this point.

 

Yeah the numbers they are presenting in Trump's briefing are assuming stay at home until end of May and even those numbers are not "good". Easing restrictions end of April just isn't likely.

 

All the numbers being presented are models based on variables that they input. Since we know so little about the virus, its antibodies, who actually has it or already had it...I'd say things are very much subject to change for better or for worse. I'm not an expert, so I won't even try to make sense of any of the data.

 

I think the only thing safe to assume is that parks will continue to follow CDC guidelines. We will see if they revise again...

 

Very true and even the people making the models are updating the models every day based on actual data on the ground. Like we hear in time travel movies "the future isn't written yet" the same is true here. We still have a chance to make worse or better the numbers in the model. Most models you'll see a confidence internal. Yes they have their predictions but also have upper and lower bounds on what could be. We have a chance still to push it to the lower side if people do what the CDC suggests we do. The interval on lower and upper limits of deaths is still very large since there is a lot we don't know which is why we need to do what we can to keep that number down. Estimates are estimates and not fact...yet.

 

The model site here updates how and why their estimates change day to day. http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates. They are upfront when and where things change and why.

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^^ also no one knows what effect summer heat and humidity will have on it. Corona viruses typically die out or become less contagious in heat and humidity.

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Ya, not sure why people are saying heat and humidity are going to kill it when in Miami they have a bunch of cases. I can tell you what effect it has, next to nothing.

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Researchers have been looking at the rates of infection and have seen a clear trend in warmer cities/countries vs cooler areas. How accurate any of those studies are is questionable, but when they all point to one conclusion its hard to not expect some change. Here is a study about how quickly the virus dies at different temperatures and on different surfaces. At 40f the virus is basically in hibernation and shows little change even after two weeks and it dies in less than 5 minutes at 160f. This likely is accurate and lines up with other corona virus's like the cold and flu.

 

The problem is the rate of transmission slows, but does not stop, and you actually have to be in the heat for it to have an effect. Large indoor gatherings like conventions, or church services will still see massive transmission because of air conditioning and close quarters. Because this is a new virus humans have no defenses and it is very easy to spread. The other problem is looking at the number of cases in a location is worthless on its own, for instance Australia looks like it has a lot of cases and is seeing a lot of community spread but if you look at where the cases were acquired the majority of it occurred overseas. Last time I looked at the numbers 60-70% of the cases in Australia were acquired overseas, which suggests little community spread.

 

Also scientists largely figured out why the spread of the cold and flu changes during warmer weather a few years ago. You can read a little about it here. This explains why the virus is so long lived in the cold as seen from the study I linked earlier. At 40f and below the coating on the outside of the virus hardens into a shell which protects the virus. At 70f the shell turns into a gel and above 105f it is a liquid. While this is a new virus, nothing I have seen suggests it somehow is completely different from all other known versions of the Coronavirus.

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One state being hot and humid obviously won't stop the spread, especially when sick people are still coming in from other places where it isn't hot.

 

They're referring to a warmer US climate as a whole to slow down the rate of infection.

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One state being hot and humid obviously won't stop the spread, especially when sick people are still coming in from other places where it isn't hot.

 

They're referring to a warmer US climate as a whole to slow down the rate of infection.

 

^ This ^

 

Unfortunately NY and other northeast cities wont see extended heat and humidity until mid-late May at the earliest.

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While this is a new virus, nothing I have seen suggests it somehow is completely different from all other known versions of the Coronavirus.

 

The extreme infectiousness and the wide range of impacts (from asymptomatic to needing ICU) are different than SARS and MERS, among others.

 

Given how the exponential increases are unfolding in tropical countries, including those without much of an air conditioning culture, the hope that this will fade because of warmer weather may be the "bargaining" phase (in the five stages of reaching acceptance).

 

If amusement parks reopen perhaps their gift shops will have themed face masks.

 

More seriously, I'm anticipating that after this subsides and the serological testing is unveiled to test blood for antibodies (ie. someone has had CV and recovered, whether mild or not), we will all probably have some sort of go / no go indicator, electronic tag, Apple watch, something that shows our antibody status. If you've had it (or are vaccinated, if or when that is available), you can go out in public, go to theme parks, baseball games, teach in schools, etc. Just an informed guess ...

 

Stay safe and sane, everyone.

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While this is a new virus, nothing I have seen suggests it somehow is completely different from all other known versions of the Coronavirus.

 

The extreme infectiousness and the wide range of impacts (from asymptomatic to needing ICU) are different than SARS and MERS, among others.

 

 

You totally took that out of context and reacted to something I never said or discussed. I am talking about the structure of the virus, the link in that paragraph discusses the lipid structure which provides a coating on a corona virus. That specific sentence is about how nothing I have seen suggests that the structure of the protective layer on COVID-19 is somehow different then on other corona viruses.

 

My post was purely a reaction to seeing individuals continuing to state that warmer weather and heat will have no effect on the spread of the virus. The problem is we already have a good amount of evidence that is just not true, which I tried to provide links to actual evidence to show how scientists have shown heat appears to effect the rate of transmission, and also tried to explain why heat has an effect. Like I stated in my post, "the rate of transmission slows, but does not stop". While I did not come out and state it, direct person to person transmission will still occur, heat will have little effect on that, and having large groups of people in close contact if it is indoors or outside is still a bad idea.

 

Since I also did not say it, people should wash their hands regularly, wear masks, and practice actual social distancing. Going outside with friends for activities is not social distancing. Putting your hands in running water for a few seconds is not washing them.

 

I am not going to speculate on how this ends or when and what businesses will reopen, including amusement parks. There are just too many unknowns at this point in time.

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I'm not sure parks in the United States will open this year at all, even if the virus subsides. If cases in the United States diminish there may still be an international risk. This is a worldwide issue. Even if other parks open overseas, liability has a different meaning here. Just a thought.

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I think it just entirely depends on the park. The Orlando parks can probably just open right up (well... no, but comparatively speaking). Many regional parks never opened and didn't even hire anyone yet and any parks that rely on international workers... good luck.

 

I could see a weird combination of parks not opening, partially opening and/or opening as if nothing ever happened.

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I think it just entirely depends on the park. The Orlando parks can probably just open right up (well... no, but comparatively speaking). Many regional parks never opened and didn't even hire anyone yet and any parks that rely on international workers... good luck.

 

Busch, Disney, Cedar, and Six Flags will most likely find a way to operate this year, even if it means starting their season a month late.

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Probably, but some parks will be more difficult than others. Staffing Dorney and Great Adventure should be a cake walk. Staffing Cedar Point will be a hilarious nightmare.

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^Oh man, I hadn't even thought about that (don't really think about CP that often!). It's probably going to be harder to staff CP than Epcot!

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I just realized - no public Easter Egg Hunts to be held, this coming weekend.

 

Oh well. I am sure some parents are going to create their own in-house hunts for their kids.

Easter-Hens.jpg.294e53b6e0fa6453a15474029f6e253c.jpg

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CP Food Blog has a screen shot of an email going around saying Administrative offices are closed indefinitely. With seasonal work also not available indefinitely.

 

With that... I would be shocked if CP opens before Labor Day or if at all in 2020. I know it's still crazy early, but without a widely spread vaccine and no hiring going on.. it'll be a nightmare to staff Point, even more so than normal.

 

Stay safe everyone, I for one will admit I did not take this seriously. It's surreal. Be safe, wash your hands and stay the f**k home if possible!

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This is totally out of left field, but....

 

"Somebody" at other end of the block, has connected with me, and my drumming

during our 7PM ThankYou tonight, to all still working outside their safety zone, etc.

 

Freeky, but we started drumming back and forth to each other for a bit, near "the end" of it. And it was fun.

 

Maybe this will (hopefully) continue, tomorrow evening. Stay tooned.

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Stay safe everyone, I for one will admit I did not take this seriously.

+1. Everything is so sensationalized in modern times. When you hear media outlets, including social media, cry wolf so often you get caught off guard when the wolf actually shows up.

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Will we be allowed to wear a face mask while riding a coaster?

 

My guess is large events will be the last to normalize on the downslope.

 

Finally saw the movie "Contagion" this weekend. Toward the end of the film, those who had immunity (from surviving the disease or from the vaccine) had a wristband bar code that allowed the wearer to go into public places.

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