Who will win the Superbowl?

[Mechanic]

I was referring to TV market size in the comparison of New York and Boston (homes of the teams that played in last year's most watched Super Bowl ever) to the TV market size of Pittsburgh and Glendale. I did use the term fan base, and that was an error on my part. I will not deny that the Steelers do have a large and loyal fan base despite their relatively smaller TV market size. The Cardinals.. Not so much.

 

Of course, the big game has a national audience, but the market size of the teams involved does have an effect on overall viewership and general interest in the game.

 

My interest in this matchup, and just about the entire bracket of teams that comprised this year's playoff picture, was pretty low right from the time the playoff teams were set. If your interest is greater than mine, then that's great for you. I'm just not feeling it.

 

Will you watch?

 

Of course I will. I've watched every Super Bowl since Super Bowl X. I, along with my father, attended Super Bowl XXVII. On an unrelated note, we actually met and spoke briefly with O.J. Simpson, along with a number of less infamous, but still famous, then current and retired NFL players at that game. O.J. was very approachable and accommodating. I'm sure glad I never met him in a dark alley after dating his ex-wife though. If I had, our encounter may have not been nearly so pleasant.

 

It's just that my overall level of enthusiasm for this season's playoffs, and now the Super Bowl, is relatively low when compared with how much I usually anticipate the games. It won't surprise me to see the ratings for this Super Bowl drop from last year.

 

I'll expect the Steelers to win and be pleasantly surprised if the Cardinals can pull off the upset, but in either event the outcome just doesn't seem like such a big deal this year. Does anyone remember much about Super Bowl XXXIII when the Broncos beat the Falcons? No? Really? No plays really stand out in your memory? Me either. That's kind of how this one feels to me even before it's played.

[Hercules]

Of course you will watch. It is the Super Bowl. That is my point. With the way the NFL is now, you could have just about any team play and people would watch. The ratings for the NFL for just about any game will top any other sport. You could have the Bengels playing the Lions, and I'm sure the ratings would be higher than most match-ups in baseball, basketball and hockey. Some of this is due to the networks these channels are broadcasted on, but most of it is due to the superior popularity of the NFL in general. Even if people aren't as excited about the game as they were last year, they will still watch because it is a huge cultural event. I don't see the ratings going down a bit.

[CoasterFanatic]

I have a terrible habit of eating my words, but in my opinion ...

 

The Cardinals don't even belong on the same field.

 

.. of course, that is why they play the game.

[FeelTheFORCE]

Defense Wins Championships. That's all I have to say.

 

--Chris

 

Yes, great statement right there. Here's my addition to that. Yes the Cardinals are on a roll (something any team at any time can go on...example, the Cincinnati Bengals, who won their last, what, 3 games?), but we have to remember that they are a team who went 9-7, were 19th in overall defense, 22nd in pass defense, and 16th in rush defense, and as already stated...defense wins championships. Also not to mention that they were LAST, yes 32nd overall, even behind the Detroit Lions, in rushing YPG for the season. If the Steelers can establish the run, control the clock, and prevent the Cardinals from doing so, chances are they will be good to go.

[Satchboogie3]

I think the old "defense wins championships" saying is just plain WRONG. Yes, you NEED a defense, but you also need good offense and special teams to go along with it. The most important thing is having balance. There is a reason why the Ravens haven't won much of anything in a while; they have no offense.

 

Second, I don't believe a team necessarily needs to be consistent throughout the regular season to become a dominant cohesive group in the playoffs. The Cardinals have had a great offense all season, but they have just recently started to emphasize the running game (Edgerrin James can still be a great back). Obviously, their real strength on offense is the passing game and Fitzgerald is absolutely unstoppable right now. The Superbowl will be played in Tampa, so I would expect the Cardinals to be able to do what ever they want on offense.

 

The defense has really come together in the playoffs and is playing with a ton of intensity. Yes, they were inconsistent and pretty bad during the regular season, but that really doesn't matter, all that matters is how they are playing currently. You only need to look at the 2006 Colts to see how irrelevant the regular season is.

 

Factor in that Hines Ward has a knee injury and might very well not be able to play and it becomes a close game. I think it comes down to the wire and I like Kurt Warner and that Cardinals offense to be able to get the winning drive.

[FeelTheFORCE]

I think the old "defense wins championships" saying is just plain WRONG. Yes, you NEED a defense, but you also need good offense and special teams to go along with it. The most important thing is having balance. There is a reason why the Ravens haven't won much of anything in a while; they have no offense.

 

Second, I don't believe a team necessarily needs to be consistent throughout the regular season to become a dominant cohesive group in the playoffs. The Cardinals have had a great offense all season, but they have just recently started to emphasize the running game (Edgerrin James can still be a great back). Obviously, their real strength on offense is the passing game and Fitzgerald is absolutely unstoppable right now. The Superbowl will be played in Tampa, so I would expect the Cardinals to be able to do what ever they want on offense.

 

The defense has really come together in the playoffs and is playing with a ton of intensity. Yes, they were inconsistent and pretty bad during the regular season, but that really doesn't matter, all that matters is how they are playing currently. You only need to look at the 2006 Colts to see how irrelevant the regular season is.

 

Factor in that Hines Ward has a knee injury and might very well not be able to play and it becomes a close game. I think it comes down to the wire and I like Kurt Warner and that Cardinals offense to be able to get the winning drive.

 

Yes you do, something the Steelers also have to add to that number one, league leading defense. The Steelers will do how they always do. The opposing team scores early, and they fail to score for the majority of the game. I don't know how to explain it, it's like the Steelers defense is feeling the other team out, then adjusts accordingly on every drive after that.

 

The Patriots game, (not bringing that up just to pick on you, it's just a coincidence). The Pats scored quick to go up 7-0, and only scored 3 more points the rest of the game.

 

The Chargers playoff game. They scored a quick TD, driving right down the field, then only scored 3 more points until the 4th quarter when the Steelers were playing deep zone and backups.

 

The Ravens game, both Raven TDs in the AFC champpionship game were scored on Steelers penalties that put Baltimore in GREAT position each time. If the penalties hadn't happened, the Ravens could have easily been shut out.

 

Those are only 3 of many examples.

 

They can let Fitz have his catches, as long as he doesn't have any deep receptions, and the Steelers secondary makes their tackles.

 

One of the few things I'm concerned about is Wisenhunt pulling some trick play out of his ass like he did against the Eagles, and many other teams. Even with the best defense in the league, they can still be very difficult to cover. Hopefully all of them have been used up already.

 

Finally, like I have said in the past, I don't think the Steelers have come this far, overcoming so much adversity (conquering the NFL's toughest schedule, beating the Chargers twice, and the Ravens 3 times) only to lose to the Arizona Cardinals.

[chmilo24]

^I bet he will. In Super Bowl XL it was one of Wisenhunt's trick plays that put the game away for the Steelers.

 

--Chris

[coolhandluke]

Yes you do, something the Steelers also have to add to that number two, league runner-up defense.

Fixed, according to NFL.com

 

I'm afraid the Steelers are going to win, but I don't think it's going to be as lopsided as people are making it sound. Sure, the Steelers are fantastic at run defense, but the Cards aren't really known for relying on their run game (which was 4th in the league...surprised me!). Fitzgerald has been just beastly this postseason, and Boldin really hasn't been a factor yet, so lookout if he breaks through. This could be the silver lining for the Cards, since they're 4th in the league in passing. The three above them? The Colts (they beat the Steelers), the Eagles (they beat the Steelers), and the Titans (they beat the Steelers).

 

Obviously, the past doesn't determine the outcome of this game, but it does show a pattern that at least favors the Cards, if they can exploit it.

[Mechanic]

^I bet he will. In Super Bowl XL it was one of Wisenhunt's trick plays that put the game away for the Steelers.

 

--Chris

 

The questionable officiating in that game helped more than just a little as well.

[ebl]

I'm going to win because I'll be out at SFMM or someplace fun instead of watching this game.

 

Eric

[DiSab]

I'm pulling for the Cardinals, though I don't think it's gonna happen. It'll be a good game, regardless.

[chmilo24]

^I bet he will. In Super Bowl XL it was one of Wisenhunt's trick plays that put the game away for the Steelers.

 

--Chris

 

The questionable officiating in that game helped more than just a little as well.

 

I've was wondering how long it would take until someone would bring up that TD.

 

--Chris

[ParkTrips]

Yes you do, something the Steelers also have to add to that number two, league runner-up defense.

Fixed, according to NFL.com

If you're gonna correct him, make sure you are correct

 

(the default is for the post season, switch to the regular season stats and you see that he's right, the Steelers were #1 in yardage D, #1 in pass D and #2 in rush D.. not to mention #1 in scoring D)

 

which was 4th in the league...surprised me!

again, 4th in the league in the postseason Which is hardly a huge accomplishment, they've been doing better, but they were dead last in the regular season. The interesting matchup is of course Warner vs the Steelers' secondary. How many picks can Troy pull down?

[FeelTheFORCE]

Yes you do, something the Steelers also have to add to that number two, league runner-up defense.

Fixed, according to NFL.com

 

I'm afraid the Steelers are going to win, but I don't think it's going to be as lopsided as people are making it sound. Sure, the Steelers are fantastic at run defense, but the Cards aren't really known for relying on their run game (which was 4th in the league...surprised me!). Fitzgerald has been just beastly this postseason, and Boldin really hasn't been a factor yet, so lookout if he breaks through. This could be the silver lining for the Cards, since they're 4th in the league in passing. The three above them? The Colts (they beat the Steelers), the Eagles (they beat the Steelers), and the Titans (they beat the Steelers).

 

Obviously, the past doesn't determine the outcome of this game, but it does show a pattern that at least favors the Cards, if they can exploit it.

 

As said by ParkTrips, look at the regular season, you're referring to the post season. The Steelers have played two games, the Colts and Titans played one game, and had good defensive games, but couldn't pull it out in the end. The Eagles had one more game than the Steelers to better their average. Once again, take a look at the regular season. The Steelers were number one in all categories until week 16 when Chris Johnson and LenDale White had fluke games, rushing for a combined 117 yards, which messed up the low average.

 

In my opinion you're wrong when you said, "Sure, the Steelers are fantastic at run defense, but the Cards aren't really known for relying on their run game (which was 4th in the league...surprised me!)." Actually, it's quite the contrary. Anyone with even the slightest knowlege of football knows that one of the keys to victory is establishing a solid running game and controlling the clock. This post season, the Cardinals have been able to run the ball and control the clock, which has been key to their three victories. As I already stated in a previous post, the Cardinals ranked DEAD LAST in rushing YPG for the entire regular season. Not to mention that in their two post season games, the Steelers defense is averaging 44 rushing YPG against.

[ParkTrips]

The Steelers were number one in all categories until week 16 when Chris Johnson and LenDale White had fluke games, rushing for a combined 117 yards, which messed up the low average.

uh.. those two combined for 2000 yards on the ground, which works out to be 125 per game, so not only was it not much of a fluke for those guys, but the Steelers did ok against them.

[thrillgeek]

I'm rooting for the Cards. I think this game will come down to who ever has the last possession. Both teams have decent players at both end of the ball. The Cards however have the great Kurt Warner! His experience alone will help them overcome the Steelers.

[Satchboogie3]

In my opinion you're wrong when you said, "Sure, the Steelers are fantastic at run defense, but the Cards aren't really known for relying on their run game (which was 4th in the league...surprised me!)." Actually, it's quite the contrary. Anyone with even the slightest knowlege of football knows that one of the keys to victory is establishing a solid running game and controlling the clock. This post season, the Cardinals have been able to run the ball and control the clock, which has been key to their three victories. As I already stated in a previous post, the Cardinals ranked DEAD LAST in rushing YPG for the entire regular season. Not to mention that in their two post season games, the Steelers defense is averaging 44 rushing YPG against.

 

So according to your football "knowledge", the 2007 Patriots offense was an absolute and total fluke. The whole offensive in 07 was "we are going to pass on you and there is nothing you can do to stop us... and it worked... it worked as the highest scoring offense in the history of the NFL".

 

If your team's passing game is so dominant that teams have trouble stopping it, even without any deception, then there is no need to have a strong running game. However, the Cardinals offense HAS a strong running game (as of the playoffs) to go along with that amazing passing game.

 

Consistency during the playoffs is what is important, not consistency during the regular season. The Patriot was has always been to play the best at the end of the season/playoffs. The last 3 Superbowl Champions have been the teams that weren't all that dominant during the regular season but peaked in the playoffs. The '05 Steelers vs a "stronger regular season" Seahawks, The '06 "Worst rushing defense in the history of the NFL" Colts over the Bears, The '07 "Worst SB team in NFL History" Giants vs The "18-0" Patriots. During the playoffs, you can all but throughout the regular season. All that matters is what teams have done recently.

 

Having said that, I still believe the Steelers are a great team and they might very well win, but it will be a close game and I like the Cardinals offense to be able to get it done in the end.

 

Also, bringing up that Patriots vs Steelers game, it wasn't as simple as you stated. The Patriots made some terrible mistakes that had nothing to do with the Steelers (Moss' dropped TD catch that would have given us the lead at the end of the half, the fumbled KO to start the 2nd half... etc). The Patriots made some bad mistakes, a lot of them giving the Steelers great field position.

[coolhandluke]

(the default is for the post season, switch to the regular season stats and you see that he's right, the Steelers were #1 in yardage D, #1 in pass D and #2 in rush D.. not to mention #1 in scoring D)

Yeah, I realized I forgot to switch the stats a while after posting that, but didn't go back and edit it. That one was my bad.

Anyone with even the slightest knowlege of football knows that one of the keys to victory is establishing a solid running game and controlling the clock.

And I agree that solid running and clock management is a key to victory, but it's not the only key. The 1990s Lions had an established running game with Mr. Sanders, but they rarely got above mediocrity. To use your words, anyone with the slightest knowledge of football should know that a balanced offense will typically get you a lot farther than just a dominating running game. This post season, the Cards have demonstrated quite the balanced offense. Admittedly, they haven't faced defense as good as the Steelers. On the same note, though, the Steelers haven't faced a passing game as threatening as the Cards yet.

 

I still think the Steelers are going to win a close game, but I won't enjoy it

[FeelTheFORCE]

In my opinion you're wrong when you said, "Sure, the Steelers are fantastic at run defense, but the Cards aren't really known for relying on their run game (which was 4th in the league...surprised me!)." Actually, it's quite the contrary. Anyone with even the slightest knowlege of football knows that one of the keys to victory is establishing a solid running game and controlling the clock. This post season, the Cardinals have been able to run the ball and control the clock, which has been key to their three victories. As I already stated in a previous post, the Cardinals ranked DEAD LAST in rushing YPG for the entire regular season. Not to mention that in their two post season games, the Steelers defense is averaging 44 rushing YPG against.

 

So according to your football "knowledge", the 2007 Patriots offense was an absolute and total fluke. The whole offensive in 07 was "we are going to pass on you and there is nothing you can do to stop us... and it worked... it worked as the highest scoring offense in the history of the NFL".

 

No, they had a decent defense also. Yes you need offense, but with an offense like the 2008 Patriots or 2007 Colts, your defense can still be top 10 or 15 and get the job done. My point was that the Cardinals defense has been mediocre at best. They are winning because they are getting turnovers (they are +9) having 8 interceptions, 5 coming in one game, and all of a sudden have a rushing game. Take those two factors away, making them a one-dimensional team, will be key to victory for the Steelers...and they know it too. Tomlin re-iterated the turnover battle today during media day.

 

I'm not trying to sound like a Pittsburgh homer, or say there is 100% no way the Cardinals are going to win. They could very well win. That offense concerns me very much and will be difficult to contain. I just think Parker will have anotehr day like he did against San Diego. Long story short, what I am trying to prove in all of this is that there is a possibility the Cardinals can win, but it's not likely. We'll just have to wait 4 more days to find out.

[themeparkman25]

As much as I want cards to get the win, and as much as I dont want them to win, this has been the most unpredictable season ever. Think about it, every team has had strong moments (sorry lions, that doesnt include you), and every team has had down moments. So this season alone should be enough reason to not write the cards out. Also last year, patriots were definitely favored to get the win, and the giants came out on top. Itll be a fun game though thats for sure

[chmilo24]

I think it is really funny that a lot of people this year are making such strong cases of how and why the Cards will win but as soon as the 09-10 season starts they will go back to loathing them.

 

--Chris

[Satchboogie3]

Well, yeah. The Cards are hot right now. Oh yeah, and I'm still an angry Pats fan who No.1 Wants the underdog to win No.2. Hates the Steelers and No.3. Doesn't want any other team to win more than 1 Superbowl this decade. Yes. I'm jealous. That's would 18-1 with a SB loss will do to you.

[Dailey Enterprizes]

^ Of course it's okay for New England to win the Super Bowl three times...

 

Yeah, I don't feel sorry for the Patriots or any other team for that matter. The Steelers have proved themselves very well this season; win or lose. If they manage to get the win this time around then it will just be the icing on the cake. Though the Steelers love to win; as do the fans want to see them win, I don't think it's possible for them to disappoint me.

[Chris Benvenuto]

^ I fully agree with what you said.

 

I mean, sure it's ok for NE to win out the butt and win the Super Bowl 3 times in a decade, but it's not ok for another team to win twice? How much ignorance can you show to people?

 

Well, not ignorance but dislikeness towards any other team??

 

Plus having NE's coach walk off the field about 20 seconds before the SB XLII ended really ticked me off. So what you lost, be a good sport and not be a prick by refusing that you lost and walked off early!

[Hercules]

Well, yeah. The Cards are hot right now. Oh yeah, and I'm still an angry Pats fan who No.1 Wants the underdog to win No.2. Hates the Steelers and No.3. Doesn't want any other team to win more than 1 Superbowl this decade. Yes. I'm jealous. That's would 18-1 with a SB loss will do to you.

 

Wow. Get over yourself.

 

Anyway, I've been doing a little bit of thinking over the past couple of days. How many time have we been surprised over the last decade when it comes to the Super Bowl? Well, first it was the Rams-Titans. Wait, the Rams and the Titans in the Super Bowl? WTF? And then the Rams winning it all after being a perennially bad team. Then, the next season, the favored Rams lost to the once lowly New England Patriots, and some kid by the name of Tom Brady. Then last year, the 18-0 Patriots, looking for their 4th Super Bowl win, got beat out by an underdog Giants team.

 

What does all of this mean? It means that we can't be certain of the outcome. It seems like every year a majority of analysts and fans get sucked into the same spell. From Week 8 on, everyone has their new stonecold locks to make it to the Super Bowl. This year, it was the Giants and the Titans, to a New York, New York Super Bowl, then the Giants-Titans again, then the Giants and Titans hiccupped...... it happens every year. Then it seems like we are surprised every year. There is no certainty at all in the NFL. But it just keeps coming back to me, "How can Pittsburgh lose?" Then I think back to the other years I mentioned, and back to seasons past. "Who can stop the Bucs?" "How in the world will the Giants beat the Patriots?" "There is no way the Cowboys won't make it to the playoffs"..... and the list goes on.

 

With this said, I have to say that I have just had a feeling about the Cardinals for some reason over the past couple of days. Do I still think the Steelers will win? Yes. "How can they lose?" But something just doesn't seem right. If I were a betting man, I would pick the Steelers. If I were a gambling man, I would pick the Cardinals.

 

The moral of this story is, Pittsburgh fans, please don't be jerks either way. (This also goes out to my friend Satchboogie3 in regard to the Patriots) If the Steelers win, don't go around touting them as being the greatest ever in a rub it in your face fashion. Or go around saying "I told you so." And if they lose, please don't cry and say "The Cardinals didn't even belong in the playoffs!" With the way the system is, the Cardinals have just as much of a right to be in the Super Bowl as the Steelers. I'm not saying that Steelers fans are a great deal like the majority of Patriots fans I heard crying last year that the Giants didn't deserve to win, and that Tom Brady is the best thing since, well, anything, ever. I'm just saying, stay classy Pittsburgh.