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Could these be the final days of Six Flags?


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I'm fully expecting Chapter 11, reduced season length, and reduced operating hours. Despite better performance, I don't think they've made a dent in the debt load under Shapiro. It was just way too much debt. I'm amazed they made it this far, actually.

 

I think most parks will survive, ultimately, but we'll probably start hearing the rumblings of bankruptcy get louder over the next few months.

 

Six Flags is actually extending the season at some parks. I know at Six Flags St. Louis, the season used to start in May and end around the beg. of Oct. This year, it started on April 5th and will end on Nov. 9th. I will be going on Nov. 8th to get my pass renewed and to enjoy quite possibly my last coaster ride for the year.

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I know it'll make me sound bad following my earlier comments, but I have been thinking really hard for the last couple months about putting some money into Six Flags. This is the time where it might be worth the risk to buy, seeing as how that stock is at really low levels. If I felt like I had a little more money to throw around I do think I would jump into the frey and invest some money on Six Flags now while the cost is low.

 

Ask Larry about his Six Flags stock purchase.

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I really don't think it's a good time to invest in SIX. Once your credit is sunk, they are going to need to take drastic measures just to stay afloat. Either way, it's not good for the stock price.

 

If you have that overall sense that they will make it (for whatever reason), I would wait for the price to drop even more. Once that happens, it will probably be OTC since the NYSE usually drops stocks that are below a dollar for an extended period of time.

 

Remember that stock price does not reflect what a company is worth, it reflects what the investors *THINK* it is worth.

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If Six Flags does go under, I see Blackstone and/or Candover(Parques Reuindos) buying many of the major parks. One of them-probably Parques Reuindos-could buy the whole chain. I can also see Hershey or Herschend picking up a smaller park like Great Escape or Kentucky Kingdom too.

 

While it is risky, there is the probability of a big payoff with SIX. I bought some stock the last time it was low, and while I'll be sad if it goes bankrupt, I didn't invest so much that I'll be upset with my losses. I knew the risks when I bought it, and I just have to hope that they pull through. Although, I wish I waited until now to buy...

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I wouldn't be surprised to see more parks sold/scrapped before now and next summer.

 

Or at least cut back such as some parks rather than be open seven days a week, perhaps they will be open for 5 or just on weekends only. Or even perhaps lower their admission prices and only have a few sections of the park open.

 

I can say this much, I doubt there will a repeat of the "great despresson". This morning I heard on the radio the dj saying that "coming soon people will be selling apples on street corners and the unemployment rate will be 50%". Yeah right !!! Thats crazy talk !!

 

For starters back in the 30's when a bank fails and if you had money in that bank..well your money pretty much was "gone with the wind". today the FDIC takes care of that. If a bank fails, you still have your money. That is why so many people back then were totally broke.

 

Also in the 30's many cities were too dependent on one or two different kinds of business. Pittsburgh is a great example. Back in the 30s. Pittsburgh was pretty much all steel factories and even the non-steel industries, well they had ties to steel as well in one form or another. So when the steel indusrty suffered greatly with the crash of 29 just about everyone there was affected so as a result the city's unemployment rate jumped up past 20% as I have been told even 40%. Of course with a number that high of course that scared the hell out of Kennywood, West View and the other parks in the region.

 

So today if one business suffers badly, it doesn't allways mean the other businesses will suffer as much. But then again it does't help much either.

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^ Agreed. Six Flags has no backup.

Sucks too because the company is finally being run in a good direction, only problem is little to late. Premier did the damage and spent like a little kid with his dad’s charge card.

 

Will they close, not likely. Either File for bankruptcy (Which they REALLY do not want to go that route, the vendor damages will be FAR and long lasting) or sell the company.

 

 

Unfortunately selling the company will do no good as the new buyer will just inherit the debt that the current ownership inherited when they bought(more like took over) the chain from Premiere parks inc.

 

I really believe that we'll see a LOT of non essential properties(ie those that aren't being heavily invested in by the company) either end up sold to other park chains,or simply shut down like GL was within the coming year.

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Six Flags is not in great shape, like most companies right now.

 

My question about this is simple: If they go Chapter 11/13, what happens to the pending lawsuit from the SFKK incident? I would hate to see that kid get nothing.

 

I doubt a debt of that nature would be discharged in a bankruptcy. It might slow down the proceedings of that case even more though while the bankruptcy gets sorted out.

 

ETA: Also it would be Chapter 7 or 11...11 is reorganization, 7 is selling everything off.

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The only parks Six Flags could sell that they would want to would be Kentucky Kingdom and Six Flags America. The rest of the parks are the parks Six Flags wouldn't sell due to their size. If they do sell more parks, hopefully they don't sell them for next to nothing like they did with SFWoA and the current PARC parks which were sold for 40 million each.(SFWoA was sold for around 140 million I believe)

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Six Flags resoponds..

http://hollywoodindustry.digitalmedianet.com/articles/viewarticle.jsp?id=537291

 

NEW YORK, Oct. 2 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Six Flags, Inc. (NYSE: SIX) announced today that it is not in compliance with the continued listing standards of the New York Stock Exchange ("NYSE") because the thirty-day average closing price of the Company's common stock was less than $1.00. Under applicable NYSE rules, the Company generally has six months to cure the deficiency. The Company's common stock will remain listed on the NYSE in the interim. If the trading average does not sufficiently improve, the Company intends to consider all available alternatives, including, among other things, a reverse stock split. If the Company decides to cure the deficiency by seeking stockholder approval of a reverse stock split, it must do so no later than the 2009 annual meeting, which is scheduled for May 2009. Failure to be listed on the NYSE does not constitute a default under any of the Company's debt instruments.

 

Mark Shapiro, President and Chief Executive Officer said: "Many companies are facing challenges in today's volatile economic climate and Six Flags is no exception. As we move closer to the redemption date of our preferred stock instruments in August of next year, uncertainty about the Company's ability to refinance these obligations in light of the overall market conditions has put negative pressure on our stock. We believe that our improved performance and cash flows will be key to repositioning the Company for long-term growth."

 

The Company reiterated the alternatives it has available to address the August 15, 2009 mandatory redemption of the Preferred Income Equity Redeemable Shares ("PIERS"). Subject to potential Delaware law restrictions on dividends and redemptions, these alternatives include a refinancing, exchange or extension of the PIERS, as well as the use of an uncommitted optional term loan, asset sale proceeds and New Orleans insurance claim proceeds. The Company continues to have discussions with PIERS holders regarding potential PIERS restructuring alternatives.

 

The Company previously announced that revenues for its third quarter through August 12, 2008 had increased approximately 7.6%, or $23.5 million, over the prior-year period on fewer park operating days. The revenue increase was attributable to attendance growth of 5.1%, or 407,000, to 8.43 million guests and a 2.4%, or $0.92, increase in total revenue per capita to $39.55. However, as also previously released, the Company's full third quarter results will reflect the loss of two full park operating days compared to the prior-year quarter. The Company expects to recover lost attendance from those days in the fourth quarter, including the benefit of a favorable Halloween season calendar with the holiday falling on a Friday this year compared to a Wednesday in 2007.

 

The Company also announced that, as of September 30, 2008, no amounts were drawn under its $275 million working capital revolving facility (excluding approximately $28.8 million in letters of credit). The Company believes that based on amounts available under this facility, together with available cash, it has ample liquidity to fund its off-season capital expenditures and operating expenses for the 2009 season.

 

The Company will host a teleconference for analysts at 9:00 EST on November 10, 2008 to announce the Company's third quarter results and performance through October 2008. Participants in the call will include President and Chief Executive Officer, Mark Shapiro, and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Jeffrey R. Speed.

The teleconference will be broadcast live to all interested persons as a listen-only Web cast on http://investors.sixflags.com/. The Web cast will be archived for one year.

About Six Flags

Six Flags, Inc. is the world's largest regional theme park company with 20 parks across the United States, Mexico and Canada. Founded in 1961, Six Flags has provided world class entertainment for millions of families with cutting-edge, record-shattering roller coasters and appointment programming and special events such as the weekly Summer Concert Series, FrightFest and Holiday in the Park. Now 47 years strong, Six Flags is recognized as the preeminent thrill innovator while reaching to all demographics -- families, teens, tweens and thrill seekers alike -- with themed attractions based on the Looney Tunes characters, the Justice League of America, skateboarding legend Tony Hawk, The Wiggles and Thomas the Tank Engine. Six Flags, Inc. is a publicly-traded corporation (NYSE: SIX) headquartered in New York City.

 

Forward Looking Statements:

The information contained in this news release, other than historical information, consists of forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act. These statements may involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in such statements. These risks and uncertainties include, among others, Six Flags' success in implementing its new business strategy. Although Six Flags believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, it can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to have been correct. Important factors, including factors impacting attendance, such as local conditions, events, disturbances and terrorist activities, risk of accidents occurring at Six Flags' parks, adverse weather conditions, general economic conditions (including consumer spending patterns), competition, pending, threatened or future legal proceedings and other factors could cause actual results to differ materially from Six Flags' expectations. Reference is made to a more complete discussion of forward-looking statements and applicable risks contained under the captions "Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements" and "Risk Factors" in Six Flags' Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2007, which is available free of charge on Six Flags' website http://www.sixflags.com.

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This is the most depressing thread ever. Not one of you can claim to know the future. Isn't that depressing enough? Why assume the worst? I plan on riding Six Flags coasters as long as I can. Hope its a while. I'm not going to tell anyone I know anything more than that. 'Cause I don't. And neither do you.

 

Are you really worried about the corporation's survival? Buy a ticket! Take your niece! Win a giant fifty-cent doll for $10.00! Carry it around all day! Eat some funnel cake! At least then you're having fun and AND doing something proactive to help ensure the survival something you love. Right now you're just worrying about something that probably won't even happen.

 

Besides, if it turns out anything like Thunderhead, the 2009 GCII at SFMM is going to be so freakin' awesome!! Can I help it if my excitement for the new woodie totally overrides my fears of imminent corporate collapse?

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Are you really worried about the corporation's survival?
Right now you're just worrying about something that probably won't even happen.

I dont know about Six Flags "survival" as a company, but its pretty much inevitable at some point theyre going to bankrupt considering their over $2billion in debt and only made $9mil profit the previous quarter which is their busiest quarter of the season (without paying any debts), and have to make large payments off their debt next fall.

 

That being said I also plan on enjoying SFMMs new coaster next year

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^^I don't think any of us are "hoping for the worst" as you may think we are. The problem in my eyes (Keeping in mind the following statement is my OPINION) is that people can't readily take their nieces or newphews or sons or daughterd to a park that has for so long had an image of metal detectors, rude employees, fist fights, the occasional Magic Mountain stabbing, out of control guests, and overall lousy operations. As Papas mentioned above, trying to pay off a 2 billion dollar debt with 9 million bucks with nothing left for future operating cost it just makes you wonder. A dunce can tell you SFI is up poop creek without a paddle. Are we happy about it? I'm not. I've been a season pass holder since my senior year in high school. It sucks to see our grand old lady in this condition, but if it happens, at least we all saw it coming.

 

 

2011-50th Anniversary???

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I just hope they don't scrap SFNE. Seriously, I can't live on just the Canobie Corkscrew! And they did put in an effort to get SFNE together. If some chain buys a lot of parks, does anybody think they could pay the debt?

 

EDIT: Apple is threatening to close the Itunes store. The next few weeks are gonna kill me.

 

What?!!!! Apple better not because I just invested quite a lot of cash into my I-pod recently.

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But it is a slippery slope. Most investors see a reverse stock split as a flashing red light warning that you may need to kick a stock out of your portfolio. As many as 75% of all stocks wind up trading lower after a reverse split.

 

With all the bad news lately, this last ditch effort might buy them some time, but once it comes time for the PIERS dividend, they are toast without the ability to refinance.

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...people can't readily take their nieces or newphews or sons or daughterd to a park that has for so long had an image of metal detectors, rude employees, fist fights, the occasional Magic Mountain stabbing, out of control guests, and overall lousy operations.

 

1985 - thats the last stabbing at SFMM. No children stabbed.

 

Shooting...lets see...1998. 10 years ago. No children shot.

 

You have a much greater chance of getting into a car accident on the way to the park than encountering any violence in Valencia.

 

Metal Detectors - What is it about a metal detector that could POSSIBLY make you unable to take a child to SF? It may bother you that people feel that they are necessary, but they don't hurt anyone.

 

I took my 12 year old nephew the other day, and we had a blast. I've been going my whole life, and I've only ever had fun. (except in the bathrooms, but seriously, its no worse than the beach!)

 

I hope you're all wrong and you don't know as much about stocks and financing as you appear to. I'd love to see that 50th anniversary!

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