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Cedar Point (CP) Discussion Thread

P. 1989: Wicked Twister's permanent closure announced!

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I don't normally get in on the anniversary discussion but here's my thought. They specifically said this would be a 2 year celebration, right? So I think kenban is correct. The 150th will be more sprucing up, retro stuff. I could see a replacement of some old management type facilities on the point at the cedars location; an older building in a prime location being replaced with a new, off the beaten path building (i dont know well enough what would fit the bill). 151st would be more likely to be the new a new coaster(if at all). Why else would you mention a 2 year celebration, say you're doing the retro stuff, AND install a new coaster? Then what happens for 151? Something extremely minor compared to 150? Why even mention the 2 years?

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How about a nice family coaster that everyone can ride. Like Whizzer or Big Thunder Mountain. Just 2 cents

 

I'm hoping for something along the lines of Oscar's Wacky Taxi or FireChaser Express. CP could really use 1 or 2 new modern family friendly coasters. Something with a height requirement around 40-42" with an adult.

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Call me crazy, but I'm pretty sure the 2 year anniversary was scrapped. It was to take place in 2019 for the 150th season and 2020 for 150th actual anniversary. 2020 they will be 150 years old, but its 150th season opens in May.

 

When they were talking 2 years, it included 2019. They are not celebrating 150 years then the 152nd season. That makes no sense at all.

 

They may not get a coaster because of the anniversary.....I think they will and have an idea of what and where. But that is moot. The celebration from my understanding is no longer 2 years. It is only in 2020.

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I have counted out Cedar point getting anything big in 2020. Seems more likely that Kings Island will get a big B&M in 2020, since all fingers pointing that way already. They will not open to big rides in Ohio in the same year. I see cedar point adding a dark ride, or adding on to the new forbidden frontier for 2020.

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Yeah, I don't see anything super big happening for their anniversary. I see general upgrades to the infrastructure, maybe a few flat additions. I was just being pedantic in regards to Alan saying that T-REX is designed for 300' or more. Raptor is to 200' and they have a medium sized track that will be debuted before TREX that I'm assuming is for 200-300'.

 

The medium sized track is what I'm assuming parks will go for. Especially larger parks because I'd imagine it's 2-abreast seating so capacity should be decent. With the success of SV I could see them biting for the midsized in the future, but definitely not soon.

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....

 

Well the evidence that we do have points to a coaster. What evidence? Well first, Tony Clark has said that what is coming will be on the same scale as Steel Vengeance if not better. CP has removed the extreme sports stadium, sandcastle suites, and the dorms by Valravn. I don't think they're removing all of that just to plant more flowers. CP keeps buying property on the mainland. Most likely to free up space on the peninsula, and again not to just plant more flowers.

 

Also, celebrating 150 years is not arbitrary, it's a milestone. Like a couples 50th wedding anniversary. You celebrate milestones by doing something special. Ok, so what park are we talking about? Not Michigan's Adventure... We are talking about America's Roller Coast.. A park that is known for building coasters that break records. An oh by the way did I mention they have been clearing space like crazy recently...So celebrating a milestone with some kind of new record breaking coaster is not unrealistic IMO.

 

And BTW who's rushing? CP has known what it will be for years now.

 

Will it be a 500 foot seatbelt only B&M, I don't know... But I think it's pretty safe to say that it will be a coaster and it will break record(s) in some way, shape, or form. It sure as hell won't be just a few retro things. That much I'm sure of.

 

 

1. What I meant by "arbitrary significance" is that the year the park just so happened to open (in this case, a century and a half ago) should not have a bearing on what is smart for them today from an investment standpoint. In other words, I don't see how the coincidence of a major coaster with an anniversary year is supposed to have any appreciable affect on the bottom line. How would putting in a major coaster on an anniversary year as opposed to a major coaster any other year have any differing affect on attendance, or lack thereof.

 

2. I'm not saying they won't celebrate it. They will, and they should as it is something special. But throwing a bunch of money into yet another supercoaster is not necessarily the way to do it...

 

I can imagine their working on some artsy logo that you'll see throughout the park, on maps, brochures etc. advertising their 150th. There will be some "retro things" as I've said, to honor the park's history. But I'm skeptical as to why they would do anything past that.

 

3. What I meant by "rush", is that the timeline just wouldn't make sense for another huge thing by 2020.

 

2013 - Gatekeeper - $25 million

 

2016 - Valravn - (don't know for sure, but I'd surmise at least $15 million, at most $20 mill, based on other Divers)

 

2018 - SV - (Again don't know for sure I would imagine at least $20 million)

 

2020 - Another $20 million+ record-breaker?

 

Would seem like overinvestment to me. Granted, there was the Intamin explosion of 2000-2007, but that those were different times, and under different leadership.

 

I'm not claiming to be a business savant or anything, nor am I privy of CP's growth potential, but I do know this...

 

According to Cedar Fair's last conference call:

 

"Zimmerman also said that the company may stretch the time between major new rides opening at some parks. (He called it “stretching out the cadence of the more significant investments.”)

 

Citing Cedar Point’s record-breaking roller coaster Steel Vengeance, which debuted in 2018, and Carowinds’ acclaimed Fury 325, new in 2015, Zimmerman said: “We can continue to leverage those for many years in our marketing campaigns.”

 

https://www.cleveland.com/business/2019/02/cedar-fair-parks-recover-from-slow-first-half-report-attendance-spending-growth-for-2018.html

 

In other words, they're gonna continue to brandish SV as the new shiny toy for years to come - not invest money in a whole new one.

 

4. To clarify what I meant by "we should be set for a while", I'm saying I'd think the appeal to their thrillseeking market has reached saturation (if not gone past it). In other words, anyone who isn't currently drawn by the bazillion record-breakers they already have, is not going to be drawn in by another one. If I had to guess on their next coaster, I'd think it'd be an intermediate, family coaster. Nothing too extraordinary.

 

 

5. I don't view Clark's comments as evidence but more just as marketing 101. Suppose they definitely weren't getting anything big in the immediate future, its not like he would say something like "We hope you like Steel Vengeance, because you're not going to be getting anything like that for a looooooooooong time". He's just trying to stir buzz, and hype up the park's future as much as possible. That's part of his job, and considering how much discussion there's been on this matter, I'd say he's doing his job quite well.

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....

 

Well the evidence that we do have points to a coaster. What evidence? Well first, Tony Clark has said that what is coming will be on the same scale as Steel Vengeance if not better. CP has removed the extreme sports stadium, sandcastle suites, and the dorms by Valravn. I don't think they're removing all of that just to plant more flowers. CP keeps buying property on the mainland. Most likely to free up space on the peninsula, and again not to just plant more flowers.

 

Also, celebrating 150 years is not arbitrary, it's a milestone. Like a couples 50th wedding anniversary. You celebrate milestones by doing something special. Ok, so what park are we talking about? Not Michigan's Adventure... We are talking about America's Roller Coast.. A park that is known for building coasters that break records. An oh by the way did I mention they have been clearing space like crazy recently...So celebrating a milestone with some kind of new record breaking coaster is not unrealistic IMO.

 

And BTW who's rushing? CP has known what it will be for years now.

 

Will it be a 500 foot seatbelt only B&M, I don't know... But I think it's pretty safe to say that it will be a coaster and it will break record(s) in some way, shape, or form. It sure as hell won't be just a few retro things. That much I'm sure of.

 

 

1. What I meant by "arbitrary significance" is that the year the park just so happened to open (in this case, a century and a half ago) should not have a bearing on what is smart for them today from an investment standpoint. In other words, I don't see how the coincidence of a major coaster with an anniversary year is supposed to have any appreciable affect on the bottom line. How would putting in a major coaster on an anniversary year as opposed to a major coaster any other year have any differing affect on attendance, or lack thereof.

 

2. I'm not saying they won't celebrate it. They will, and they should as it is something special. But throwing a bunch of money into yet another supercoaster is not necessarily the way to do it...

 

I can imagine their working on some artsy logo that you'll see throughout the park, on maps, brochures etc. advertising their 150th. There will be some "retro things" as I've said, to honor the park's history. But I'm skeptical as to why they would do anything past that.

 

3. What I meant by "rush", is that the timeline just wouldn't make sense for another huge thing by 2020.

 

2013 - Gatekeeper - $25 million

 

2016 - Valravn - (don't know for sure, but I'd surmise at least $15 million, at most $20 mill, based on other Divers)

 

2018 - SV - (Again don't know for sure I would imagine at least $20 million)

 

2020 - Another $20 million+ record-breaker?

 

Would seem like overinvestment to me. Granted, there was the Intamin explosion of 2000-2007, but that those were different times, and under different leadership.

 

I'm not claiming to be a business savant or anything, nor am I privy of CP's growth potential, but I do know this...

 

According to Cedar Fair's last conference call:

 

"Zimmerman also said that the company may stretch the time between major new rides opening at some parks. (He called it “stretching out the cadence of the more significant investments.”)

 

Citing Cedar Point’s record-breaking roller coaster Steel Vengeance, which debuted in 2018, and Carowinds’ acclaimed Fury 325, new in 2015, Zimmerman said: “We can continue to leverage those for many years in our marketing campaigns.”

 

https://www.cleveland.com/business/2019/02/cedar-fair-parks-recover-from-slow-first-half-report-attendance-spending-growth-for-2018.html

 

In other words, they're gonna continue to brandish SV as the new shiny toy for years to come - not invest money in a whole new one.

 

4. To clarify what I meant by "we should be set for a while", I'm saying I'd think the appeal to their thrillseeking market has reached saturation (if not gone past it). In other words, anyone who isn't currently drawn by the bazillion record-breakers they already have, is not going to be drawn in by another one. If I had to guess on their next coaster, I'd think it'd be an intermediate, family coaster. Nothing too extraordinary.

 

 

5. I don't view Clark's comments as evidence but more just as marketing 101. Suppose they definitely weren't getting anything big in the immediate future, its not like he would say something like "We hope you like Steel Vengeance, because you're not going to be getting anything like that for a looooooooooong time". He's just trying to stir buzz, and hype up the park's future as much as possible. That's part of his job, and considering how much discussion there's been on this matter, I'd say he's doing his job quite well.

 

Ok fair enough. I just want to clarify that I’m not saying they are getting a supercoaster. But I think they will get a coaster of some sort for the reasons I have already mentioned. And CP will claim it breaks some kind of record(s).

 

As for point #4. They need people to keep coming. I like to use my brother as an example. He’s not an enthusiast at all, but he’s a thrill seeker. He only goes to parks with me when they have a new coaster. So this year he will not visit CP, or KI. He will go to Kennywood and Great America.

 

I could be wrong but I think a lot of CP’s guests would fall into that same category as my brother. So if CP didn’t get a coaster for 2020 I’d be very interested to see what the crowds are like. Because people like my brother are not coming back because of some retro things.

 

 

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I'm sorry, you are right. It wasn't Tony Clark it was Rob Decker. And his quote was "Bigger and badder than Steel Vengeance". It's according to a certain youtube channel that I'm not sure I can post a link to..

 

I do not know exactly what interview you are referring to here. But I have not seen anything from Cedar Point, or Cedar Fair which suggests whatever is coming will be a 2020 attraction..

 

The Rob Decker quote i heard/read from someone who I believe is a legit source that has a YouTube channel. Meaning, I don’t think they made it up. Now maybe he (Rob) wasn’t being serious, I don’t know, I wasn’t there.

 

Now in terms of 2020 coaster/ attraction evidence/ speculation... What about taking out the stadium, hotel, and dorms? Like I said before, they didn’t remove that stuff to plant flowers...

 

 

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Yes. They're probably going to do something with that land at some point eventually that may or may not be exciting to a bunch of coaster enthusiasts. For all we know it could just be better housing facilities to try to combat their unbelievable staffing problems.

 

They're trying their hardest to give everyone reasonable 2020 expectations but you can lead a horse to water I guess...

 

Thanks for trying, Intamin_coyote.

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As for point #4. They need people to keep coming. I like to use my brother as an example. He’s not an enthusiast at all, but he’s a thrill seeker. He only goes to parks with me when they have a new coaster. So this year he will not visit CP, or KI. He will go to Kennywood and Great America.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Steel Vengence was the first coaster that made me contemplate traveling to visit a park the year a new coaster opens. That being said, I didn't. If it's something that I'm truly interested in, I tend to look at going the second or third year after the frenzy has eased up a little. Doesn't break my heart if I do or don't ride a new coaster the year it opens. What breaks my heart is waiting 2+ hours to ride something. If I'm paying more than admission on FL+, I don't want to wait more than 15 minutes for anything. So again, first year of a new coaster is a pass for me. I'm sure there are plenty of other enthusiasts and pass holders who feel the same.

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^Yeeaaah Buddy!

 

I went during Steel Vengeance's operating infancy, but the trip wasn't planned for Steel Vengeance. In fact, I'm not even that big of a fan of the two RMC Hybrids I've ridden, with one of those being Steel Vengeance. But, I'm with you. I don't feel the need to ride something shiny and new, especially if it makes for a more enjoyable waiting experience a year or two later. I also refuse to wait over 15 minutes.

 

That said, we keep planning trips to parks during their new coaster debuts, but not on purpose. We're hitting Carowinds and Canada's Wonderland next year, which was planned prior to any announcements. Sure, we'll ride the new shiny coasters. But, if the lines are long even with our FL+ passes we'll only hit them once or twice and enjoy the hell out of rides like Fury, Afterburn, Leviathan, and Behemoth.

 

Enough about my worthless personal preferences. I agree with William. I'm guessing the new land acquired will likely have nothing to do with coaster and thrill ride fans. I could see housing dorms for staff, as he said. I could also see an expansion of an off of the mainland resort/hotel experience with shuttles and what not.

 

Either way, I doubt 2020 will hold anything significant in the ride department. Enthusiasts are in denial and it furthers my opinion that people are spoiled in this department. Although admittedly I'm spoiled with my wait time standards. But, come to my neck of the woods (SFSTL) and you'll be humbled. I hope Cedar Point goes full blown King's Island and announces something on the level of antique cars on National Coaster Day. That's better than any new show or anniversary celebration they could add. But... Log flume, please.

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They're trying their hardest to give everyone reasonable 2020 expectations but you can lead a horse to water I guess...

 

 

You think it's unreasonable to think a coaster is coming in 2020? Not talking about a huge 500 footer, just a coaster...

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In case you missed it the multiple times it was stated by the reasonable persons on this board, yes, it is unreasonable to think any kind of coaster is coming in 2020.

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In case you missed it the multiple times it was stated by the reasonable persons on this board, yes, it is unreasonable to think any kind of coaster is coming in 2020.

 

I guess I did miss it because recently (as in the last couple pages) people were striking down the idea of a big major coaster coming. Something I agree with BTW... But with the space they have cleared I think it's reasonable that it could be for another coaster in 2020. I could be wrong, but IMO it's not unreasonable..

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They're trying their hardest to give everyone reasonable 2020 expectations but you can lead a horse to water I guess...

 

 

You think it's unreasonable to think a coaster is coming in 2020? Not talking about a huge 500 footer, just a coaster...

 

I think it's unreasonable to expect a major coaster given what they've said on conference call and that last post by Tony Clark. If they go out and buy a Vekoma junior suspended coaster or whatever I guess I wouldn't be shocked but I really don't expect a major ride and if I had to place a cash bet I would probably lean towards "no coaster".

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I guess I did miss it because recently (as in the last couple pages) people were striking down the idea of a big major coaster coming. Something I agree with BTW... But with the space they have cleared I think it's reasonable that it could be for another coaster in 2020. I could be wrong, but IMO it's not unreasonable..

 

No one is saying they will never build another coaster, no one is saying that there are no projects going on, or that they are not laying the groundwork for future attractions. People are saying your timeline and reasoning why it is a 2020 coaster makes no sense.

 

Look at Valravn, the good time theatre was removed at the end of the 2014 season, just like the Cedars dorm was removed after the 2018 season. Valravn opened in 2016. If a new coaster is replacing Cedars, the work involved in moving the road, expanding the boundaries of the park etc, will likely occur this summer and construction on the coaster would start next year for a 2021 opening. During the construction on Steel Vengeance several people kept claiming it would open a year before it did, even during the 2017 season there were a LOT of claims it would open by Halloweekends. It ended up barely being ready for the 2018 season. Your arguments make about as much sense as those posters did.

 

Your throwing a bunch of feces at a wall and saying see it says 2020, when the rest of us are just seeing a shit stained wall.

 

I have been making this argument for several years now but here is what I feel the most likely schedule for coaster installs over the next 5 years at KI and CP.

2020- KI coaster, 150th at CP

2021 - CP coaster

2022 - KI 50th

2023 - KI Coaster

2024 - CP coaster

 

Kings Island has already filed paperwork with the county showing a project with B&M which was expected to start in 2018 and finish in 2020, then a month or two after that paperwork was filed the park announces the closure of Firehawk, that is evidence complete with a timeline. Nothing that you have posted is even close to the evidence we already have had for months about a project at Kings Island.

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I never understand why people use KI as a reason CP would or wouldn't be doing something. First they are 4 hours away from each other. Second, they are 2 different worlds.

 

CP is a destination and that is inarguable. They have approximately 1600 accommodations.

 

Every year CP opens a roller coaster, resort spending is up 6% the next year it is flat, and if they go another year it goes down 3%. These are easy numbers to look up, they are in the financials, and since CP has hotels and no one else does.....it is obvious where the numbers come from.

 

Each percentage point is $1.5 million. So a 6 point gain is wort 9 million flat is the same 9 million for 18 total. But the next year you are down 4.5 million. So you net 13.5 million in occupancy from a new coaster in 3 years time.

 

This does not include attendance or in park spending. Which we have to look up broadly. But across the chain IP spending is up $0.39. On attendance of 3 million ish. That's another 1.2 million at the low end driven primarily by fast pass sales. For 2 years that 2.4 million.....probably higher because let's be honest FP at MIA is not pushing that number up.

 

This is why CP has been putting in a coaster every 2 years. They are running a resort, not just an amusement park.

 

Up 6% year one. 9 million

Flat year 2. 9 million

In par spending. 2.4 million

Total. 20.4 million

 

Wait 2 years build a coaster avoid the 4.5 million drop in occupancy. Avoid the decrease in in park spending. 1.2 million realize those gains above again, but even higher with rising costs and exponential growth of about 2 percent

 

20.4 million

400k. Growth

5.7 million in unrealized losses

 

26.5 million over 2 year

Build a $20 million coaster

$6.5 million in profits over 2 year

 

 

Wash, rinse, repeat

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I keep cracking up thinking about a new coaster going in any of the areas mentioned in the land clearings from the demolitions...with perhaps the stadium beachfront being the lone exception.

 

Sandcastle Suite area is not even part of the amusement park OR the water park. They've already expanded luxury campsites up into that area.

 

The dorms need a major overhaul...as everyone else has mentioned. Plus it's across the street and isn't a huge plot of land.

 

The old Oceana stadium (yes, I'm old) doesn't open up much space, unless they remove Wicked Twister (which HAS been rumored). Perhaps they could wedge in a twisty beachfront GCI or a compact T-Rex, but we shall see.

 

Since I've been a kid, CP has always put in something big every 2-3 years. After SV and Valravn, I could see them stretching it for 3 versus 2 years. Those were both pretty ambitious additions for the park.

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I never understand why people use KI as a reason CP would or wouldn't be doing something. First they are 4 hours away from each other. Second, they are 2 different worlds.

 

Outside of relocating X-Flight from GL to KI as Firehawk in 2007, Cedar Fair has never opened a major coaster at both parks in the same year.

 

Coincidence?

 

Also, no one is saying CP doesn't warrant more investment than the average park. Yes, I realize this isn't Michigan's Adventure were talking here but "THE POINT!!!"...

 

But this logic can only take you so far...

 

Maverick capped off the splurge of 2000-2007, and it took 6 years to get GK. Granted, the recession hit in 2008, along with some other factors (CF financial difficulties IIRC).

 

CP might get a coaster for 2021, but I wouldn't be surprised if its 2-3 years later than that.

 

Every year CP opens a roller coaster, resort spending is up 6% the next year it is flat, and if they go another year it goes down 3%. These are easy numbers to look up, they are in the financials, and since CP has hotels and no one else does.....it is obvious where the numbers come from.

 

Each percentage point is $1.5 million. So a 6 point gain is wort 9 million flat is the same 9 million for 18 total. But the next year you are down 4.5 million. So you net 13.5 million in occupancy from a new coaster in 3 years time.

 

This does not include attendance or in park spending. Which we have to look up broadly. But across the chain IP spending is up $0.39. On attendance of 3 million ish. That's another 1.2 million at the low end driven primarily by fast pass sales. For 2 years that 2.4 million.....probably higher because let's be honest FP at MIA is not pushing that number up.

 

This is why CP has been putting in a coaster every 2 years. They are running a resort, not just an amusement park.

 

Up 6% year one. 9 million

Flat year 2. 9 million

In par spending. 2.4 million

Total. 20.4 million

 

Wait 2 years build a coaster avoid the 4.5 million drop in occupancy. Avoid the decrease in in park spending. 1.2 million realize those gains above again, but even higher with rising costs and exponential growth of about 2 percent

 

20.4 million

400k. Growth

5.7 million in unrealized losses

 

26.5 million over 2 year

Build a $20 million coaster

$6.5 million in profits over 2 year

 

 

Wash, rinse, repeat

 

Ok, so I haven't the slightest idea of how to interpret these incoherent blurbs of numbers you dug up from "the financials", nor can I grasp how you concluded there to be "$6.5 million in profits over 2 year". If you could post a source for this that would be...appreciated?

 

Like I said, I'm not a business savant or anything, but I have a hard time believing you are.

 

And for the record, Knott's also has hotels.

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You are right, knotts has a 320 room hotel. Totally forgot.

 

The information is from their year end financials every year.

 

Out of park spending last year was up 6% up to $152 million. Or about 1.5 million per percent. Yes some of that goes to the 320 rooms, but obviously the 1600 at CP is a larger part of that. If you just follow the financial starting at gatekeeper. Those are the numbers. You cant use Maverick because of the financial crisis, it is extremely weak, and an anomaly. Their financials are public

 

Up 6% in 2014

Flat in 2015

Up 6% in 2016

Flat in 2017

Up 6% in 2018

Assume flat in 2019.

 

There was a huge bump in 2013 from 2012, but that probably has a ton to do with the economy turning around. Up almost 20%

 

The bottom line, based on 6% growth every year they add a coaster. That is a lot of money. In 2013 accommodation revenues were 127 million. Last year they were $152 million. That is $25 more million per year and what has changed in that time. A coaster every 2 years.

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