Cedar Point (CP) Discussion Thread

[kenban]

I guess I did miss it because recently (as in the last couple pages) people were striking down the idea of a big major coaster coming. Something I agree with BTW... But with the space they have cleared I think it's reasonable that it could be for another coaster in 2020. I could be wrong, but IMO it's not unreasonable..

 

No one is saying they will never build another coaster, no one is saying that there are no projects going on, or that they are not laying the groundwork for future attractions. People are saying your timeline and reasoning why it is a 2020 coaster makes no sense.

 

Look at Valravn, the good time theatre was removed at the end of the 2014 season, just like the Cedars dorm was removed after the 2018 season. Valravn opened in 2016. If a new coaster is replacing Cedars, the work involved in moving the road, expanding the boundaries of the park etc, will likely occur this summer and construction on the coaster would start next year for a 2021 opening. During the construction on Steel Vengeance several people kept claiming it would open a year before it did, even during the 2017 season there were a LOT of claims it would open by Halloweekends. It ended up barely being ready for the 2018 season. Your arguments make about as much sense as those posters did.

 

Your throwing a bunch of feces at a wall and saying see it says 2020, when the rest of us are just seeing a shit stained wall.

 

I have been making this argument for several years now but here is what I feel the most likely schedule for coaster installs over the next 5 years at KI and CP.

2020- KI coaster, 150th at CP

2021 - CP coaster

2022 - KI 50th

2023 - KI Coaster

2024 - CP coaster

 

Kings Island has already filed paperwork with the county showing a project with B&M which was expected to start in 2018 and finish in 2020, then a month or two after that paperwork was filed the park announces the closure of Firehawk, that is evidence complete with a timeline. Nothing that you have posted is even close to the evidence we already have had for months about a project at Kings Island.

[RCTycoonClassic]

I never understand why people use KI as a reason CP would or wouldn't be doing something. First they are 4 hours away from each other. Second, they are 2 different worlds.

 

CP is a destination and that is inarguable. They have approximately 1600 accommodations.

 

Every year CP opens a roller coaster, resort spending is up 6% the next year it is flat, and if they go another year it goes down 3%. These are easy numbers to look up, they are in the financials, and since CP has hotels and no one else does.....it is obvious where the numbers come from.

 

Each percentage point is $1.5 million. So a 6 point gain is wort 9 million flat is the same 9 million for 18 total. But the next year you are down 4.5 million. So you net 13.5 million in occupancy from a new coaster in 3 years time.

 

This does not include attendance or in park spending. Which we have to look up broadly. But across the chain IP spending is up $0.39. On attendance of 3 million ish. That's another 1.2 million at the low end driven primarily by fast pass sales. For 2 years that 2.4 million.....probably higher because let's be honest FP at MIA is not pushing that number up.

 

This is why CP has been putting in a coaster every 2 years. They are running a resort, not just an amusement park.

 

Up 6% year one. 9 million

Flat year 2. 9 million

In par spending. 2.4 million

Total. 20.4 million

 

Wait 2 years build a coaster avoid the 4.5 million drop in occupancy. Avoid the decrease in in park spending. 1.2 million realize those gains above again, but even higher with rising costs and exponential growth of about 2 percent

 

20.4 million

400k. Growth

5.7 million in unrealized losses

 

26.5 million over 2 year

Build a $20 million coaster

$6.5 million in profits over 2 year

 

 

Wash, rinse, repeat

[southpuddle]

... but... but... Cedar Point is America’s Roller Coast, don’t you get it?! The stars have aligned and it is their destiny to get a big shiny new coaster in 2020 because reasons! And I want one!

[Philrad71]

I keep cracking up thinking about a new coaster going in any of the areas mentioned in the land clearings from the demolitions...with perhaps the stadium beachfront being the lone exception.

 

Sandcastle Suite area is not even part of the amusement park OR the water park. They've already expanded luxury campsites up into that area.

 

The dorms need a major overhaul...as everyone else has mentioned. Plus it's across the street and isn't a huge plot of land.

 

The old Oceana stadium (yes, I'm old) doesn't open up much space, unless they remove Wicked Twister (which HAS been rumored). Perhaps they could wedge in a twisty beachfront GCI or a compact T-Rex, but we shall see.

 

Since I've been a kid, CP has always put in something big every 2-3 years. After SV and Valravn, I could see them stretching it for 3 versus 2 years. Those were both pretty ambitious additions for the park.

[Intamin_coyote]

I never understand why people use KI as a reason CP would or wouldn't be doing something. First they are 4 hours away from each other. Second, they are 2 different worlds.

 

Outside of relocating X-Flight from GL to KI as Firehawk in 2007, Cedar Fair has never opened a major coaster at both parks in the same year.

 

Coincidence?

 

Also, no one is saying CP doesn't warrant more investment than the average park. Yes, I realize this isn't Michigan's Adventure were talking here but "THE POINT!!!"...

 

But this logic can only take you so far...

 

Maverick capped off the splurge of 2000-2007, and it took 6 years to get GK. Granted, the recession hit in 2008, along with some other factors (CF financial difficulties IIRC).

 

CP might get a coaster for 2021, but I wouldn't be surprised if its 2-3 years later than that.

 

Every year CP opens a roller coaster, resort spending is up 6% the next year it is flat, and if they go another year it goes down 3%. These are easy numbers to look up, they are in the financials, and since CP has hotels and no one else does.....it is obvious where the numbers come from.

 

Each percentage point is $1.5 million. So a 6 point gain is wort 9 million flat is the same 9 million for 18 total. But the next year you are down 4.5 million. So you net 13.5 million in occupancy from a new coaster in 3 years time.

 

This does not include attendance or in park spending. Which we have to look up broadly. But across the chain IP spending is up $0.39. On attendance of 3 million ish. That's another 1.2 million at the low end driven primarily by fast pass sales. For 2 years that 2.4 million.....probably higher because let's be honest FP at MIA is not pushing that number up.

 

This is why CP has been putting in a coaster every 2 years. They are running a resort, not just an amusement park.

 

Up 6% year one. 9 million

Flat year 2. 9 million

In par spending. 2.4 million

Total. 20.4 million

 

Wait 2 years build a coaster avoid the 4.5 million drop in occupancy. Avoid the decrease in in park spending. 1.2 million realize those gains above again, but even higher with rising costs and exponential growth of about 2 percent

 

20.4 million

400k. Growth

5.7 million in unrealized losses

 

26.5 million over 2 year

Build a $20 million coaster

$6.5 million in profits over 2 year

 

 

Wash, rinse, repeat

 

Ok, so I haven't the slightest idea of how to interpret these incoherent blurbs of numbers you dug up from "the financials", nor can I grasp how you concluded there to be "$6.5 million in profits over 2 year". If you could post a source for this that would be...appreciated?

 

Like I said, I'm not a business savant or anything, but I have a hard time believing you are.

 

And for the record, Knott's also has hotels.

[RCTycoonClassic]

You are right, knotts has a 320 room hotel. Totally forgot.

 

The information is from their year end financials every year.

 

Out of park spending last year was up 6% up to $152 million. Or about 1.5 million per percent. Yes some of that goes to the 320 rooms, but obviously the 1600 at CP is a larger part of that. If you just follow the financial starting at gatekeeper. Those are the numbers. You cant use Maverick because of the financial crisis, it is extremely weak, and an anomaly. Their financials are public

 

Up 6% in 2014

Flat in 2015

Up 6% in 2016

Flat in 2017

Up 6% in 2018

Assume flat in 2019.

 

There was a huge bump in 2013 from 2012, but that probably has a ton to do with the economy turning around. Up almost 20%

 

The bottom line, based on 6% growth every year they add a coaster. That is a lot of money. In 2013 accommodation revenues were 127 million. Last year they were $152 million. That is $25 more million per year and what has changed in that time. A coaster every 2 years.

[coasterbill]

In 2013 accommodation revenues were 127 million. Last year they were $152 million. That is $25 more million per year and what has changed in that time.

A very strong period of economic growth combined with a cyclical business that historically follows the market, a massive multi-year 50 million dollar upgrade to their most expensive hotel, a huge upgrade and re-brand to their Express hotel with tons of new rooms and inflation?

 

A coaster every 2 years.

Oh.

[RCTycoonClassic]

You forgot the demolition of Sandcastle Suites

[coasterbill]

What about it?

[southpuddle]

Bill, obviously the 500 footer is going to have a giant support structure there at Sandcastle and another giant structure where Cedars used to be. Anyone can see this!

[Intamin_coyote]

seems legit

 

[RCTycoonClassic]

Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:03 pm

 

What about it?

 

^^

 

Just you forgot that to.

 

Renovaccommodations. Express opened in 2017, flat revenues though for accommodations.

 

Breakers was 2018 and up 6% with sandcastle gone.

 

So your renovations and expansion of breakers account for a 6% increase during that time.

 

I'm talking about a plus 20% increase since gatekeeper that couldn't have happened from renovations and expansions because it wasnt in effect until 2017 and 2018.

 

So worst case scenario 14% increase if you say all other increases are from breakers, breakers Express, and sandcastle demolition.

 

14% minimum came from somewhere else.

[JG-77]

Where are these numbers coming from? I recall it being mentioned that Cedar Fair doesn't typically release individual park figures, just chain-wide figures.

[coasterbill]

^Given the signup date and sudden surge of activity I'm almost completely convinced this is a troll account.

 

The coasters didn't hurt, but the economy and cyclical nature of the company combined with the millions of dollars they dumped into hotels are clearly the driving force here. Plus you're looking at 5 years of inflation which helps to pad it a bit...

 

This really isn't complicated.

[kenban]

Here is how Cedar Fair defines out of park revenue. “Out-of-park revenues are defined as revenues from resort, marina, sponsorship, online transaction fees charged to customers and all other out-of-park operations.”

 

Feels like there are way too much lumped into one category to try to act like it’s all Cedar Point. Also 3 other parks have camp grounds, and there is the hotel at Knott’s.

[Intamin_coyote]

Where are these numbers coming from? I recall it being mentioned that Cedar Fair doesn't typically release individual park figures, just chain-wide figures.

 

You would be recalling correctly.

 

While it is true that quarterly and annual earnings reports are public record (in accordance with being publicly-traded company), as far as I can tell there is no break-down by park.

 

https://s2.q4cdn.com/170666959/files/doc_financials/annual/2018/81ac11d7-464c-4431-b70f-6e5dc5ec6439.pdf

 

 

I asked RCT to post a source for the numbers he's giving, but according to him they're "easy to look up". Yeah, ok.

 

He's pulling these stats from god knows where...

 

Sigh. Idk why I'm even humoring this probable troll as much as I am....

 

(The season can't get here soon enough )

[RCTycoonClassic]

Yep,

 

I'm a roller coaster enthusiast troll. Come on! Just look up their financials.

 

Yes there are campgrounds, yes there is a 320 room hotel in California. But please, are you telling me that the 1600 rooms at CP aren't their biggest source of out of park revenue. If you think it is something else you are delusional. Heck it was said above, why would they spend 50 million on renovation and expansions at CO resorts if it all came from campgrounds at Carowinds. Or why would they be putting up hotels at Carowinds and Canadas Qonderland if it didn't make financial sense.

 

Because the concept Is proven. I will post financials from 2012 on tomorrow. And you tell me that it is wrong.

[RCTycoonClassic]

Here you go.

 

Up 28 million vs. 2013.

 

And as stated up 6% 2017 to 2108 due to accomidations.

 

Not broken down by park, but obviously not campgrounds at Carowinds. It is because of 1600 rooms at CP.

 

Sorry if you dont get it. Just posting truths. It is not a bad thing and not sure why CP making tons of money because of accommodations is so taboo for this thread. Bottom line, build it and they will come.

[kenban]

Nothing that your showing changes the fact that you do not know how much of that is actually even from hotels, let alone the ones at only Cedar Point. Go back and look at older annual reports, compare the accommodations and other, with the out of park spending category which you are trying to use. The difference between the two is huge, 2011 for instance, accommodations and other was 83 million, while out of park was 117.5 million. In that year alone it was at least 34.5 million dollars from non-hotel out of park sources and likely more because we have no way to determine how much of the 83 million was purely accommodations. There is a LOT of money from other out of park sources which you have no way to separate.

 

That category is not mostly the accommodations at Cedar Point, there is just too much other stuff in it for you to use it to make the kinds of comparisons your trying to make.

[RCTycoonClassic]

Alright, there is no point to this.

 

There is another line on financials towards the top that you are referring to that was $177 million in 2018 that is accommodations and other add on spending.

 

How do I know out of park spending is for accommodation. Because they said it. It will post it here again. "Out of park spending up 6%, duty to higher hotel occupancy levels and higher rates." That's it, they said it.

 

Of course I cant prove from cedar point. But would it stand to reason that if you property that has 1600 rooms would effect that more than say, a campground at carowinds that is significantly cheaper per night. Or a 320 room hotel. It is just a guess, and yes you could argue against it. But come on, be reasonable....of course that bump came from CP. That's why they spent the money on renovation and expansion, that's why they are putting more hotels on other properties.

[coasterbill]

I hope they get a 2020 coaster and it's a Delirious clone. I feel like I could actually die happy at that point.

[Canobie Coaster]

Aim higher. They need the World's Tallest Loop Coaster. 2020 is a big year.

[kenban]

Alright, there is no point to this.

 

There is another line on financials towards the top that you are referring to that was $177 million in 2018 that is accommodations and other add on spending.

 

How do I know out of park spending is for accommodation. Because they said it. It will post it here again. "Out of park spending up 6%, duty to higher hotel occupancy levels and higher rates." That's it, they said it.

 

Of course I cant prove from cedar point. But would it stand to reason that if you property that has 1600 rooms would effect that more than say, a campground at carowinds that is significantly cheaper per night. Or a 320 room hotel. It is just a guess, and yes you could argue against it. But come on, be reasonable....of course that bump came from CP. That's why they spent the money on renovation and expansion, that's why they are putting more hotels on other properties.

 

That is ONE year in which we know the increase was due to the hotels, I am happy to concede that it was likely due to Cedar Point, and likely a lot bigger than 6%. The problem is that we have no idea how the hotels did in the other years because without more quotes like this we do not have enough information to separate those numbers. My point was that we do not have an accurate reflection of the amount made by JUST the hotels. In 2011 for instance like my numbers show 30% and likely more of the out of park revenue came from sources other than the hotels.

 

I will also agree there is no point to this because you do not seem to understand that this category is way too broad to be used in this way. There is more than just hotels stuck in it, we have the marina which sells fuel, the restaurants outside of Knotts, the gift shops outside of Knotts, sponsorship deals which would include the funds paid by Coca-Cola for exclusivity.

 

For instance how do you remove the change from Red Gold to Heinz which occured in 2015? This is a sponsorship deal the one with Red Gold was for 5 years and ended in 2014, did the chain receive less or more money, is it per a year or a lump sum? No details of the transactions were released as far as I know, so how can you possibly correct for changes like this.

[RCTycoonClassic]

I guess I'll just keep posting statements then.

 

2017 accommodations flat, just like I surmised. But wait they state that that is the primary source of out of park revenue. So no, I cant quantify it because I am not their accountant. But if their primary source of out of park revenue is accommodations, would it be safe to say that their primary park with accommodation would effect this line more than say a secondary contributor to this number. And I would consider accommodations the Marina as well, people go in and out all the time. Yes gas would count too, just like the omelette at Perkins would. After all, you wouldn't be eating that omelette if you weren't at Breakers.

[coasterbill]

I don't even know what point you're trying to make and I don't care. We all know that hotels make money. How about a cash bet on a new 2020 coaster? Any takers?