Cedar Fair Corporate Development Discussion Thread (FUN)

P. 143: CF releases 2018 mid-year figures
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Re: Cedar Fair Corporate Development Discussion Thread

Postby AndrewRnR » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:44 am

A.J. wrote:That would mean an 11.4% increase in attendance if the 300,000 number is accurate. Fascinating. They should submit that info, the TEA makes a few revisions to the Theme Index over the course of the year.


I don't think they care. I know a lot of people in regional parks laugh at the numbers by how off they are (though I've heard with the bigger chains they take it more serious and the numbers are closer - Universal forced them to republish the report when they were drastically off back in early 2000s). With Kings Island it was a clear lack of research on TEA's part. CF announced it was the best year since 1998 on the earnings call. Then you add in the extra 25+ days of WinterFest and it would've made it one of the best ever. TEA just likely isn't listening to all the earning calls because they had a few other years since 1998 as higher than 2017.

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Re: Cedar Fair revenues down through July 4th

Postby jconsolmagno » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:53 am

AndrewRnR wrote:
coasterbill wrote:I've got to admit, I have very few theories on what's going on here and it doesn't seem like the chain does either. The economy is good... gas prices are up a tiny bit but it's not all that significant. I don't know, but thee numbers are very unexpected (as evidenced by the reaction on Wall Street).


I'm actually surprised at the reaction to Wall Street as I don't see as much concern as Wall Street and some fans think. Here's why:

- They are wrapping on a very strong Q1/Q2 in 2017. They stated Kings Island had record April and May last year in prior earnings call. Without a new ride it will be tough to wrap on that. Sure you had new ride at KD for the whole quarter but it had problems and bad press. And KD doesn't do the numbers KI does.
- RailBlazer just opened.
- Weather. Yeah, its the "easy" excuse. But let's not forget the horrible cold & wet start to season Kings Dominion had. I believe there was some earlier closings in there due to that. Same with Carowinds and Kings Island in April. Also, Memorial Day was quite rainy for a better part of the east coast.
- Not wrapping on same for same hotels. Sandcastle Suites is gone. Sure last year Breakers was missing the smaller Bon Air wing, but not have 170+ rooms at CP suites prices does hurt the bottom line. I believe average daily rate was around 200-400 a room vs. Bon Air which was usually under 200/250.
- Steel Vengeance. The crash, the closures, the issues, etc were all over the news in the core markets. Detroit TV stations were even running stories the one day it closed for testing in late May. But mainly I think it pushed people to later in season. Also look at the Frontier Hoedown they did. That likely didn't count as gate clicks - if you didn't have the event that's probably 10-15k more in attendance you would've saw in the first few weeks. I know several people with passes that went to that, then didn't go again for another month or so. Also, you lost all that easy FastLane+ revenue for a few weeks.

Someday I'd love to try to do a deep dive into the impact of sports team on attendance. No surprise one of the best years for regional parks was '94 when MLB was on strike. May seem like a stretch to say KD and CP lost entertainment dollars (or even days from people wanting to stay home and watch games) due to playoff runs.

A.J. wrote:I'm going through the TEA Theme Index right now. Interesting (estimated / approximated) attendance trends from 2014 to 2017...

Knott's Berry Farm had a 5% increase, then a 3.8% increase, then only a 0.5% increase.
Canada's Wonderland had a 2% increase, then a 2.9% increase, then only a 1% increase.
Cedar Point had an 8% increase, then a 2.8% increase, then stayed even.
Kings Island had a 3% increase, then a 1.5% increase, then a 2.5% increase.


Kings Island's GM confirmed last year's number was much higher than what was reported by TEA. I believe by about 300k - 2017 was their best year since the record year like 20 years back (again according to the GM).


I know I did the Hoedown then went to Kings Island for Memorial Day. Skipping Cedar Point until late June. Normally I have a few Cedar Point visits in by then.

If the sports theory is true, Kennywood/Sandcastle should be picking up, especially with the new revamps next year. Pirates attendance is less than half of what it was 3 years ago. I don't think that's unreasonable either... on the Penguins SCF runs the past 2 years, I worked my park visits around the Playoff schedule. This year, I added Dorney in with the early exit and a few extra days at Kings Island.

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Re: Cedar Fair Corporate Development Discussion Thread

Postby Hilltopper39 » Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:05 am

I did a statistical modeling project for a grad school class a few years ago looking at attendance increases at a park in years when a new attraction was added vs years a new attraction wasn't added trying to determine if there was a correlation between attendance and new attraction, and surprisingly enough over time there was little to no correlation between attendance increase and opening a new attraction.

Now this project was for a different park in a different market, and you can use data to prove anything you want if you choose the right set/variables/controls etc., but I think sometimes we just assume that opening something spectacular will equate to an immediate and significant increase in attendance when in reality there are so many factors in play that it's just not the case.

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Re: Cedar Fair Corporate Development Discussion Thread

Postby larrygator » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:33 pm

Of course we don't have all the numbers, but this huge of a drop doesn't make sense based on the 1st half of year revenue change.
2018 - $633 Million $563MM in-park, $70MM out-of-park
2017 - $641 Million $573MM in-park, $68MM out-of-park

That is only a $1.2% change in revenue which should not create a 8% drop in stock price, when management is stating that they anticipate implementing a 4% dividend increase.
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Re: Cedar Fair Corporate Development Discussion Thread

Postby grsupercity » Fri Jul 13, 2018 6:13 am

I thought of a cool name for a new hyper coaster. HyperKing. That is my random post for the day :lmao:
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Best Steel Maverick...Lighting Run.....Montu...Mako..Fury...Afterburn...Manta
Honorable mentions Kumba..Raging Bull..Legend..Cornball..M Force..Rapter..Mr Freeze

You know what....Way to many good coasters the best :lmao:

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Re: Cedar Fair Corporate Development Discussion Thread

Postby lord denning » Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:03 am

larrygator wrote:Of course we don't have all the numbers, but this huge of a drop doesn't make sense based on the 1st half of year revenue change.
2018 - $633 Million $563MM in-park, $70MM out-of-park
2017 - $641 Million $573MM in-park, $68MM out-of-park

That is only a $1.2% change in revenue which should not create a 8% drop in stock price, when management is stating that they anticipate implementing a 4% dividend increase.


The drop is not based on just a 1.2% change in revenue but how performance compared with market expectations. The dividend increase was previously announced and baked into the share price. Announcing they were missing that target as well would have resulted in an even bigger drop.
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Re: Cedar Fair Corporate Development Discussion Thread

Postby larrygator » Fri Jul 13, 2018 12:14 pm

lord denning wrote:
larrygator wrote:Of course we don't have all the numbers, but this huge of a drop doesn't make sense based on the 1st half of year revenue change.
2018 - $633 Million $563MM in-park, $70MM out-of-park
2017 - $641 Million $573MM in-park, $68MM out-of-park

That is only a $1.2% change in revenue which should not create a 8% drop in stock price, when management is stating that they anticipate implementing a 4% dividend increase.


The drop is not based on just a 1.2% change in revenue but how performance compared with market expectations. The dividend increase was previously announced and baked into the share price. Announcing they were missing that target as well would have resulted in an even bigger drop.


Agreed, we don't have all the numbers. By what percent did they miss expectations?

But you don't announce that you expect to increase the dividend by a specific % unless you are extremely confident about the results of the next 2 quarters.
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Re: Cedar Fair Corporate Development Discussion Thread

Postby DirkFunk » Fri Jul 13, 2018 12:31 pm

larrygator wrote:Of course we don't have all the numbers, but this huge of a drop doesn't make sense based on the 1st half of year revenue change.
2018 - $633 Million $563MM in-park, $70MM out-of-park
2017 - $641 Million $573MM in-park, $68MM out-of-park

That is only a $1.2% change in revenue which should not create a 8% drop in stock price, when management is stating that they anticipate implementing a 4% dividend increase.


If attendance has plateaued and is receeding and with it revenue is dropping, then most people looking for a growth stock aren't going to see it in their future with labor costs rising and tarrifs likely to lead to a variety of cost increases as well. Ergo, they headed for the door now rather than wait around.

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Re: Cedar Fair Corporate Development Discussion Thread

Postby coasterbill » Mon Jul 16, 2018 1:16 pm

There's no perfect thread for this since this isn't really a "corporate discussion" thing but spamming every park thread would be dumb, so I figured I'd drop in quick and mention that it looks like every Cedar Fair park has been added to Queue Times except for Valleyfair and Dorney because Dorney doesn't have queues. :lol:

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Re: Cedar Fair Corporate Development Discussion Thread

Postby RCjunkie » Tue Jul 17, 2018 9:11 am

^ Also MiA is missing. You, like CF, have completely forgotten about that park. :lol:

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